2015 Australian Cup Form Guide & Preview

The Super Saturday race day will be held at Flemington Racecourse this weekend, one of the most anticipated meetings of the Autumn Race Carnival.

Mourinho will look to complete the Peter Young Stakes-Australian Cup double at Flemington. Photo by Sarah Ebbett.

The nine-race meeting is a full black-type event with two Group One races serving as headliners, including the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m), which has attracted a field of 16 middle-distance runners.

Just three of the 16 runners are offering single figure odds in the betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au, led by Happy Trails at $4.60.

The Paul Beshara-trained gelding is a Flemington specialist with all three of his Group One wins coming at the track. Happy Trails will enjoy a jump from barrier four with Damien Oliver, who is the reigning Australian Cup champion after winning with Fiorente last year.

The seven-year-old has seen plenty of support from punters since the betting opened yesterday with his price shortening from $5.

Rounding out the single figure odds are Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) winner Protectionist ($5.50) and Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m) last-start winner Mourinho ($9).

That’s how the bookies rate the 2015 Australian Cup but do the race’s history, form guide, and betting statistics bring another runner to the forefront?

2015 Australian Cup Form Fact & Betting Stats

The Australian Cup was last won by Gai Waterhouse’s Fiorente, who jumped from barrier eight with Damien Oliver as jockey.
Gai Waterhouse will return to Flemington in search of her second win with #16 Greatwood ($19) while Damien Oliver will be aboard race favourite #3 Happy Trails ($4.60).
Fiorente’s winning barrier will this year be occupied by #15 Spillway ($10).
The 2000m start at Flemington is a straight 500m run to the first turn which affords most runners ample opportunity to position favourable. As a result, starting gates aren’t that big of a deal in the Australian Cup.
Barriers 2 (Puccini), 5 (Foreteller), 7 (Sonntag), and 8 (Spillway) have all brought home four winners each in the past 30 years.
Age is a big factor in the Australian Cup with the race usually won by an older, seasoned weight-for-age galloper. In 2013, Super Cool became the first 3YO to take out the race since Saintly won in 1996.
The youngest runners in this year’s field are #8 Puccini ($26) and #13 Sonntag ($101) – both 4YO.

In recent times Fiorente (2014), Pompeii Ruler (2007), Lonhro (2004), and Northerly (2003) have all completed the Peter Young Stakes-Australian Cup double. This year #6 Mourinho ($9) will look to add his name to that list.
Other runners coming via the Peter Young Stakes include: Happy Trails (2^nd ), Akzar (3^rd), Spillway (4^th), Au Revoir (5^th), Protectionist (6^th), Sonntag (11^th), and Lidari (13^th).
There’s a big swing against the favourites in the Australian Cup betting with just one of the last 10 justifying their odds. Happy Trails will look to break that hoodoo this year.
The Australian Cup is usually a boys affair with just five mares breaking through since 1983, the last of which was the mighty Makybe Diva in 2005. No mares are set to tackle the race this year.
The horse with a best Win Record is Protectionist (45%) followed by The Cleaner (38%).
Protectionist also has the best Place Rate (82%) followed by Greatwood (69%), The Cleaner (68%), and Entirely Platinum (67%).
Those runners with good experience running at Flemington include: Red Cadeaux (4:0-3-0), Happy Trails (8:3-0-1), The Cleaner (7:1-3-1), Lidari (6:1-3-0), and Big Memory (3:0-2-1).
Those with experience running over 2000m include: Happy Trails (10:2-2-1), Extra Zero (33:2-11-4), Mourinho (11:4-0-3), and The Cleaner (6:1-2-1).