Can Black Caviar be Beaten in the 2011 Lightning Stakes?

February 17, 2011

Can Black Caviar be Beaten in the 2011 Lightning Stakes?

Black Caviar

Can Black Caviar win the Lightning Stakes 2011

She has the imposing record, the form and the honour of being crowned of the world’s highest-rated sprinter so the question has to be posed, can Black Caviar be beaten on Saturday in an upset 2011 Lightning Stakes result?

Unbeaten in her eight career starts to date including her blistering four length victory in the Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic (1200m) at Flemington last start back in the spring, the Peter Moody-trained Black Caviar is the odds-on favourite to extend her winning streak to nine straight on Saturday.

Leading online bookmaker Luxbet currently has Black Caviar at $1.40 in their Lightning Stakes odds.

In the world of racing, however, every horse has the ability to be beaten including the sprint queen herself.

On Saturday Black Caviar faces a Lightning Stakes field full of depth and there will be punters out there laying the favourite.

So here the Races.com.au team take a look at the facts and stats and see if there is any chance the glamour mare can have her flawless record blemished.

Why Black Caviar Can’t be Beaten in Lightning Stakes

Black Caviar

Black Caviar

  • It’s an obvious fact but her unbeaten record of eight from eight is impressive
  • Has run and won twice over the 1000m distance at Flemington firstly on debut in April 2009 by five lengths then again in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes (1000m) during the spring
  • At her only start from barrier seven she took out the Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield in May 2009 by six lengths beating Demerit at just her second start
  • Doesn’t know how to run a bad race winning the Listed Arrow Training Services Plate (1200m) in August 2009 after striking early interference and came from behind to beat Wanted in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes (1200m) at Flemington in September 2009 despite blundering the start
  • Is meeting her male rivals 2kg better off under the weight-for-age conditions
  • Can easily carry 56.5kg to victory having done so in her three spring wins
  • Is Australia’s fastest horse
  • She’s first-up for the season and of 17 of the past 20 Lightning Stakes winners were resuming from a spell
  • Showed she was ready to race with a brilliant barrier trial win at Caulfield earlier in the month

Why Black Caviar Can be Beaten in Lightning Stakes

  • The last horse to win nine consecutive metro race starts was the talented juvenile Rancher right back in 1981 – 82
  • Can have the tendency to act up a little in the barriers which she can’t afford with just 1000m to run
  • When she met Hay List last time the boom galloper was coming off an injury-marred lead-up and she is yet to face him at his best
  • Hasn’t raced against a number of the ‘under-the-radar’ rivals in the Lightning Stakes field including King Pulse
  • Six other Lightning Stakes runners are also first-up on Saturday
  • Is not the highest earner of the field as Crystal Lily has won nearly double in prize money
  • Favourites have a poor record with only two having won the Lightning Stakes in the past decade
  • Black Caviar would have to become the first odds-on favourite since General Nediym in 1998 to take out the Lightning Stakes
  • Her trainer Peter Moody and jockey Luke Nolen have never won the Lightning Stakes

Whether you want to back Black Caviar or bet against her Luxbet have the best Lightning Stakes odds.

Sign up with Luxbet now and not only will you avoid the last minute rush on Saturday, but you will also be instantly rewarded with a free bet up to $400 when you join and enter the codeword BONUSBET!

Photos courtesy (c) Taron Clarke Photography

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