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Betting on the Group 1 $2 million Caulfield Guineas (1600m) each October during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival is big business and the Caulfield Guineas tips are some of the season’s most sought after.
The race is only open to three-year-old gallopers and the Caulfield Guineas tips are out as soon as the field is released the Tuesday before the race runs at Caulfield Racecourse that Saturday, one week before Caulfield Cup Day back at the track.
Caulfield Guineas Favourite
Caulfield Guineas favourites have a good recent record when it comes to the Caulfield Guineas results over the past 10 years or so. Between 2006 – 2016 five of the 11 Caulfield Guineas winners jumped favourites in the Caulfield Guineas betting markets, giving the punters’ picks nearly a 50% strike rate in that time. Despite a huge upset in 2017 by 100/1 shot Mighty Boss, the favourite was back in form with The Autumn Sun saluting for the punters in 2018 on the back of a Golden Rose Stakes win in Sydney.
The latest favourites to salute for the punters in the Caulfield Guineas are Press Statement (2015), The Autumn Sun (2018), Ole Kirk (2020) and Anamoe ($2.10 in 2021).
In that same recent period of Caulfield Guineas history, only two winners jumped at double figures with Starspangledbanner ($13 in 2009) and All Too Hard ($12 in 2012) meaning you should look for the shorter-priced three-year-olds in the Caulfield Guineas odds when doing your tips.
Caulfield Guineas Lead Up Races
One of the best Caulfield Guineas tips is to look at the lead-up form of the runners in the field. History shows there are two stand-out lead-up races that have provided more Caulfield Guineas winners than any other events.
Sydney’s Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) provided back-to-back Caulfield Guineas winners in Melbourne with both Shooting To Win (2014) and Press Statement (2015) completing the double, before Divine Prophet (2016) improved on a lead-up second in the Stan Fox Stakes before his Group 1 win.
The traditional lead-up race is the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) held a fortnight earlier at the same track over 200m shorter. The last Caulfield Guineas winner to come off a run in the Prelude was Super Seth (5th in 2019). Recent winners of the Prelude – Caulfield Guineas double include Helmet (2011) and Anacheeva (2010).
Caulfield Guineas Fillies
Do not bet on fillies to win the Caulfield Guineas. Smart trainers aim their fillies at the Thousand Guineas instead, which is held on the Wednesday after Caulfield Guineas Day, and no filly has won the race since 1976.
With that said, you can still pick fillies as part of exotic bets, especially if they have performed well in any or the lead up races or in races at the same distance.
You need to be careful about relying on fillies to beat the boys, but the longer odds they are assured to have in the Caulfield Guineas can make exotic bets that include them payoff incredibly well.
Caulfield Guineas Barrier Draw
Early Caulfield Guineas tips are nearly always thrown into disarray after the barrier draw is released. This is simply the risk you take when you go with longer early odds, but a bad barrier draw does not mean the end of the world.
For the most part, the Caulfield Guineas barrier draw won’t have much of an effect on a horse’s chances unless they draw beyond barrier 8. Beyond barrier 8 things get difficult and horses have struggled to win from there, in which case you should consider putting your favourite horse in a box trifecta with a few selections rather than placing a win bet.
From 2006 – 2016 just two Caulfield Guineas winners saluted from a double-digit barrier draw with Whobegotyou (11 of 16) in 2008 and Press Statement (14 of 16) in 2015. Barrier one is the most successful Caulfield Guineas barrier in recent times producing four winners since 2009 including Divine Prophet (2016). Backing youngsters drawn the inside alley then is a good Caulfield Guineas betting tip.
Current Caulfield Guineas Tips
For the most up-to-date Caulfield Guineas tips in the lead up to the race, be sure to check out our horse racing news pages! We offer tips on all the big Spring Racing Carnival events to help our readers make better picks.