Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Three Group 1 autumn races headline the action at Caulfield Racecourse on Saturday including the weight-for-age 2018 Futurity Stakes, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed bellow.
Eleven runners make-up the field for this year’s Group 1 $500,000 Futurity Stakes (1400m) and in an open betting race at Ladbrokes.com.au, five are under $10 for the win.
The Futurity Stakes has been a great race for the punters in the past decade including six wins by the favourites in the last eight years.
This weekend it is Brave Smash sitting top of the Futurity Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au for last year’s winning trainer Darren Weir.
Weir did the CF Orr Stakes – Futurity Stakes double a fortnight apart over 1400m at Caulfield in 2017 with Black Heart Bart and returns in the latter with a trio of runners.
After a lead-up third when only a quarter-length beaten in the Group 1 Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes (1400m) on February 10, the bookies are taking no chances with Japanese import to improve and salute on Saturday.
Following in Futurity Stakes betting at $5.50 and firming is then the Mick Price-trained three-year-old Mighty Boss who ran a luckless seventh first-up in the C.F. Orr Stakes.
Winner of the Group 1 Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas (1600m) over a mile in the spring as a triple-figure roughie, Mighty Boss has a second weight-for-age test before returning to his own kind Saturday week in Flemington’s Group 1 $1 million Australian Guineas (1600m).
Weir’s other runners meanwhile are Tosen Stardom ($6) and Humidor ($7.50), both multiple Group 1 winners down under, before last start Expressway Stakes runner-up Showtime ($8.50) rounds out the single-figure Futurity Stakes horses in 2018.
That’s the story told by the bookies, but what does the Futurity Stakes 2018 form guide and betting statistics reveal?
2018 Futurity Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Futurity Stakes winner was the Darren Weir-trained Black Heart Bart (2017) who backed-up from a CF Orr Stakes victory and saluted from barrier 6 (of 9) with Brad Rawiller aboard the short-priced favourite
- Darren Weir chases back-to-back Futurity Stakes wins by a trainer for the first time since David Hayes (Niconero, 2008-09) this year with: #1 Tosen Stardom ($6), #2 Humidor ($7.50) and #3 Brave Smash ($3.60)
- The other previous Futurity Stakes winning trainers with a runner this weekend are: Lindsay Park co-trainer David Hayes chasing a fifth win in the showdown with #5 Sovereign Nation ($26) and #8 Snitzon ($26); Mick Price with early market mover #10 Mighty Boss ($5.50) and John Hawkes with #11 Showtime ($8.50)
- The previous Futurity Stakes winning jockeys with a ride this weekend are: Kerrin McEvoy on #8 Snitzon, Dwayne Dunn on #11 Showtime, Craig Williams chasing a third aboard the favourite #3 Brave Smash and four-time winning hoop Damien Oliver after a fifth on #4 Lord Of The Sky ($13)
- Favourites have dominated the Futurity Stakes results with six wins in the past eight years; #3 Brave Smash ($3.60) is out to continue the gun record of punters’ picks this year
- Just the one Futurity Stakes winner since 1999 has won at double-figures when Suavito ($10) saluted in 2015
- Along with the favourite #3 Brave Smash the other single-figure hopes in the mix this year are: #10 Mighty Boss ($5.50), #1 Tosen Stardom ($6), #2 Humidor ($7.50) and #11 Showtime ($8.50)
- #10 Mighty Boss and #11 Showtime are the three-year-olds in the Futurity Stakes field this year looking to join All Too Hard (2013) as the only winner of that age since six won the trot from 2000-2004
- Since 2007 four mares have beaten home the boys in the Futurity Stakes most recently Suavito (2015); #9 Shillelagh is the sole mare in the mix this weekend
- Four-year-olds have won four times since 2010 and there are three of that age looking to add to the record on Saturday: #6 Mr Sneaky, #7 Wyndspelle ($41) and #8 Snitzon
- In the eight years from 2010 – 17 only one Futurity Stakes winner didn’t come off a lead-up win when Turn Me Loose (2016) improved on a fourth in the CF Orr
- There are no last-start winners in the Futurity Stakes field this year but two come off a top three lead-up with #3 Brave Smash (CF Orr 3rd) and #11 Showtime (Expressway Stakes 2nd)
- The CF Orr Stakes has proven the gun Futurity Stakes form race of the past 20 years including producing seven winners in the past decade
- The CF Orr Stakes graduates in the race on Saturday are: Brave Smash (3rd), Lord Of The Sky (5th), Mighty Boss (7th), Mr Sneaky (8th), Shillelagh (10th) and Tosen Stardom (11th)
- The best Win Rate of the field belongs to #9 Shillelagh (35%) followed by #6 Mr Sneaky (29%) and #10 Mighty Boss (29%)
- The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #6 Mr Sneaky (76%) followed by #2 Humidor (68%)
- The runners with winning form at the Caulfield track are: #4 Lord Of The Sky (15:6-0-0), #6 Mr Sneaky (5:2-1-0), #1 Tosen Stardom (6:1-1-1), #9 Shillelagh (5:1-0-1) and #10 Mighty Boss (3:1-0-0)
- #3 Brave Smash (3:0-2-1) is yet to win at Caulfield but has finished in the money in all three of his previous starts at the track
- The horses with winning form over the distance (1400m) are: #5 Sovereign Nation (10:2-2-1), #9 Shillelagh (9:2-1-1), #8 Snitzon (6:2-0-0) and #6 Mr Sneaky (5:1-2-1)
Stay tuned for our exclusive Futurity Stakes 2018 tips, a comprehensive form guide courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au provided in the meantime below.
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