Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The 2018 Black Caviar Lightning featuring Redzel steals the show in Melbourne on Saturday and below punters will find our comprehensive form guide analysis and betting preview on the Group 1 sprint.
A classy field of 10 sprinters will face off in Flemington Race 8 at 4:45pm (AEDT) in this year’s Group 1 $750,000 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), named in honour of three-time champion Black Caviar (2011-13).
There is an odds-on favourite in the Black Caviar Lightning betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au this autumn with the returning Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Redzel at $1.80 to make it seven wins on the trot.
The constantly improving Snitzel five-year-old hasn’t lost since his second to stablemate Russian Revolution on a Heavy (10) Rosehill track last March in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m).
Redzel has gone from strength to strength since enjoying two Group 1 wins plus success in Randwick’s The Everest and a win for the punter son the weekend will see his prize money reach just shy of $8.25 million.
Proven at Flemington where he was last seen winning the Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m) with a three-quarter length win over last year’s Black Caviar Lightning winner Terravista, Redzel flies fresh and is definitely the one to beat.
Last start Manikato Stakes winner Hey Doc has eased out from $7.50 to $9 to join the aforementioned Terravista on the second line of Black Caviar Lightning betting, meaning all the money is on the short-priced Redzel.
That’s the story told by the bookies but below we go over the full Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 2018 form guide, betting statistics and historical data to uncover any possibility of an upset.
2018 Black Caviar Lightning Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Black Caviar Lightning winner was the Joe Pride-trained Terravista (2017) who won first-up, improving on his second in the race the year before, as a $15 roughie from barrier 8 (of 9) with Corey Brown in the saddle
- #2 Terravista ($9) returns on Saturday chasing back-to-back Lightning Stakes wins for the first time since the race’s now namesake Black Caviar (2011-13) won three straight
- #2 Terravista and #5 Rock Magic ($21) are out to be the first eight-year-old winner in over 30 years
- Last year’s winning trainer Joe Pride has also accepted for Terravista’s half-brother #6 Ball Of Muscle ($15) whose last start produced a commanding Flemington 1000m win during the Melbourne Cup Carnival
- There are no other previous Black Caviar Lightning Stakes winning trainers with a starter this year
- The previous Black Caviar Lightning Stakes winning jockeys with a 2018 ride are five-time champion Damien Oliver on #8 Missrock ($19) and Dwayne Dunn (Chautauqua, 2016) on the filly #10 Formality ($10)
- Mares have a stellar recent record in the race with five wins from 2007-17 most recently Snitzerland (2014)
- #8 Missrock and the speedy #9 Super Too ($21) are the mares in this year’s Black Caviar Lightning field
- The Lindsay Park-trained filly #10 Formality ($10) is the only three-year-old in the mix looking to beat home the older horses in the race for the first time since her sire Fastnet Rock (2005) gave the three-year-olds three wins on the trot
- Regimental Gal (2004) was the last filly to win the Lightning Stakes
- The most successful barrier (since 1983) producing six Lightning Stakes winners is gate 2 drawn this year by #6 Ball Of Muscle
- The next best Black Caviar Lightning barrier producing five winners (since 1983) is gate five drawn this year by #9 Super Too
- First-up runners have won all but seven of the past 30 editions of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and all 10 horses in the 2018 field are resuming
- All the horses in the line-up have outstanding first-up form including: #2 Terravista (10:6-2-1), #7 Supido (7:5-1-0), #8 Missrock (5:4-0-0), #3 Hey Doc (4:3-0-1) and #1 Redzel (6:3-2-0)
- Four-year-olds and five-year-olds have won eight of the past 10 editions of the Black Caviar Lightning
- Horses the right age to win statistically on Saturday are: #1 Redzel (5YO), #3 Hey Doc (4YO), #8 Missrock (4YO) and #9 Super Too (4YO)
- #1 Redzel ($1.80) is odds-on favourite in Black Caviar Lightning odds out to be the fifth favourite since 2011 to salute for the punters
- Runners with the best record at the Flemington track are: #7 Supido (5:4-0-0), #1 Redzel (2:2-0-0), #3 Hey Doc (6:3-1-0), #2 Terravista (8:2-3-2) and #4 Redkirk Warrior (3:2-0-0)
- Runners with the best 1000m record over the distance are: #9 Super Too (7:5-1-0), #5 Rock Magic (8:3-1-1), #1 Redzel (5:2-2-0), #2 Terravista (5:2-2-0) and #6 Ball Of Muscle (10:3-2-2)
Stay tuned for our insider Black Caviar Lightning 2018 tips, a full race form guide provided by Ladbrokes.com.au available below.
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