There has been a shake-up to the 2017 Blamey Stakes betting markets and tips for the feature race at Flemington on Saturday after the early withdrawal of race favourite Black Heart Bart.
Darren Weir’s in-form galloper was to contest the $200,000 Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m) this weekend on the back of the Group 1 CF Orr – Futurity Stakes double at Caulfield.
The six-year-old is now out of the weekend’s race after he took skin off between his hock and his hip when found to be cast in his box on Friday morning.
The injury may not be serious, but there is a chance Weir may err on the side of caution and shelve plans to head to Sydney next month with Black Heart Bart in the $3 million Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m).
With Black Heart Bart out the updated Blamey Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au are now dominated by stablemate Tosen Stardom into odds-on territory.
Earlier in the week punters could get Weir’s in-form Japanese import at $4, but the six-year-old Deep Impact stallion is now into $1.85.
Tosen Stardom comes off a Futurity Stakes second when going down a nose and without his winning stablemate there to stop him on Saturday, shapes up as the one to beat.
The other major player at single-figures in Blamey Stakes betting this Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival is the also Weir-trained Palentino ($2.80) who was just over two lengths away sixth in the Futurity.
So will the dominant Weir duo also dominate the Blamey Stakes results on Saturday or is there value further down the markets in the likes of the reigning champ He Or She ($10) or the rails-drawn Lindsay Park-trained import Harlem ($31) at the blow-out price for his Australian debut?
#6 Tosen Stardom ($1.85)
There’s little value in the market now without the obvious tip Black Heart Bart. Tosen Stardom takes his stablemate’s place at the top of the odds and after the brave Futurity Stakes second first-up, looks the one to beat here. He’ll be fitter for the run when beaten the narrowest of margins over 1400m. Yet to win from four 1600m runs with his winning form to date from 1800 – 2000m, so this could still be shy of his best. But in such a small field without any other real standouts, coming back from 59kg at WFA to just 55kg he’ll be hard to hold out.
#3 He Or She ($10)
Double-figures offered for last year’s Blamey Stakes winner from the Lindsay Park stable. He atoned for the last to Stratum Star over in Perth’s Group 1 Kingston Town Classic from December first-up back in Melbourne. Continued his good Flemington form with a Group 3 win over Hooked and gets the two weeks between runs going up to a mile, which he loves (8-3-0-1). This is his pet distance and only needs to handle 58kg to be competitive.
#5 Real Love ($15)
The last of the three remaining Weir runners, this smart mare comes off three fifth place finishes for the season. The latest on February 25 saw her go down only 1.3 lengths in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m). Gets in well weight-wise for this. Is down to a mile and from four runs at 1600m she has twice run second. Genuine place chance.
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