The Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival Group 1 action continues at Flemington Saturday with the Black Caviar Lightning 2017 – a full form guide analysis and betting preview for the short-distance sprint found below.
A final field of 13 faces off in this season’s $750,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), betting on the weight-for-age clash at Ladbrokes.com.au led by the Team Hawkes-trained Star Turn ($4.60).
He races first-up from barrier two, which produced last year’s winner Chautauqua, and will be ridden by the defending jockey Dwayne Dunn.
Star Turn was last seen running third at the track during the Melbourne Cup Carnival in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) and winner of that, Flying Artie, is the $4.80 second elect in Black Caviar Lightning betting on the weekend.
Damien Oliver chases his sixth win in the race aboard the Mick Price-trained young gun who, along with Star Turn, is out to be the first three-year-old winner of the classic since Fastnet Rock (2005) over a decade ago.
The other best fancied in the latest Black Caviar Lightning Stakes odds at $5 and firming is the returning four-year-old Spieth who runs for the first time since the devastatingly close second in the Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m) last November.
That’s the story told by the bookies but what do the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes form guide, betting history and statistics say about who to back and sack in the class edition on Saturday?
2017 Black Caviar Lightning Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Black Caviar Lightning winner was the Team Hawkes-trained Chautauqua (2016) who came off a Darley Classic second the spring before, started favourite in betting and jumped from barrier two (of 6) with Dwayne Dunn aboard
- Team Hawkes (3-1-0-1) return chasing back-to-back wins this season with early favourite #12 Star Turn ($4.60)
- Co-trainer John Hawkes (11-1-1-1) also won the Lightning Stakes with Sports back in 2001
- The other previous Black Caviar Lightning winning trainers with a runner on Saturday are: David Hayes (14-1-1-1) with #6 Faatinah ($26) and Mick Price (6-1-0-1) with #11 Flying Artie ($4.80)
- #11 Flying Artie is the other best in Black Caviar Lightning betting and favourites have won four of the past six editions of the race
- The last winner to jump at double-figures in Lightning Stakes betting was Scenic Blast ($21 in 2009)
- Last year’s winning hoop Dwayne Dunn (5-1-0-1) is back aboard #12 Star Turn on the weekend looking to be the first jockey to win successive editions of the Lightning Stakes since Luke Nolen made it three on the trot with Black Caviar (2011-13)
- The other previous Black Caviar Lightning winning jockeys with a ride on Saturday are: Corey Brown (5-1-0-1) on #1 Terravista ($8.50), Luke Nolen (6-3-1-0) on #8 Supido ($7.50) and Damien Oliver (17-5-4-0) on #11 Flying Artie
- Three-year-olds dominated the Lightning Stakes results up until 2005 with 12 wins since 1983, but none have won since Fastnet Rock (2005)
- The three-year-olds out to break the drought this year are: #11 Flying Artie, #12 Star Turn and #13 Missrock ($71)
- Five-year-olds have won five of the past 10 editions including the past two on the trot; the 5YOs in the race this year are: #5 Illustrious Lad ($15), #8 Supido ($7.50) and #9 Orujo ($151)
- The past four Black Caviar Lightning winners saluted first-up including Lankan Rupee (3rd in 2015) and Chautauqua (2nd in 2016) out of the Darley Classic
- Only two runners in the field this year are not first-up: #2 Flamberge and #6 Faatinah
- Following the Darley Classic form lines the runners out of that spring run in the Lightning field on Saturday are: Spieth (2nd) and The Quarterback (6th)
- #11 Flying Artie (Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1200m, Flemington, 29/10/2016) is the only last start winner in the race
- Barrier two has produced six winners (since 1983) including Chautauqua (2016) and belongs this year to #12 Star Turn
- The other best Lightning Stakes barrier with five winners in that time is gate five drawn this year by #7 Spieth ($5)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #8 Supido (67%) followed by #7 Spieth (56%) and #11 Flying Artie (50%)
- The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #11 Flying Artie (100%) followed by #10 Heatherly (92%) and #8 Supido (89%)
- The horses with the best winning record at the distance (1000m) are: #10 Heatherly (8-3-3-2), #3 The Quarterback (8-3-0-2), #5 Illustrious Lad (5-3-0-0), #8 Supido (3-2-1-0), #9 Orujo (14-2-4-2), #1 Terravista (3-1-2-0) and #2 Flamberge (9-1-1-2)
- The horses with the best record at the track (Flemington) are: #5 The Quarterback (13-5-0-4), #8 Supido (4-4-0-0), #2 Flamberge (13-3-1-1), #5 Illustrious Lad (5-2-1-0) and #1 Terravista (5-1-2-2)
Stay tuned for our 2017 Black Caviar Lightning Tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime back your favourites online at Ladbrokes.com.au enjoying up to $500 in bonus match bets as a first-time depositing player when you quote the code BETBONUS (T&Cs apply / excluding NSW).