A good barrier draw will assist Champagne...
2016 Crown Oaks Day features a bumper nine-race Flemington card across the afternoon and below are the insider Races.com.au tips for the latest round of spring showdowns.
The first race at Flemington this afternoon jumps at 12:15pm (AEDT) and the card closer is scheduled for 5:45pm (AEDT).
There are three Group status events as well as two Listed races, giving punters a total of five Black-Type features to enjoy a punt on this Ladies’ Day.
The meeting’s marquee event is scheduled as Race 8 at 5:00pm (AEDT) with the season’s best staying fillies doing battle in the $1 million Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m).
Race 1 (12:15pm) – $100,000 Red Rock Deli Plate (1700m)
- #8 Concubine ($20)
- #2 Tavi Bay ($11)
- # 4 Sea The Sparkle ($6.50)
First-up on the card is a Benchmark 70 handicap for the three-year-old fillies and four-year-old mares. Going for an early upset with Concubine at $20 for the win. She is out wide, but this track / distance make the draw a non-issue. Carried 59.5kg to victory in easier company over a mile last start, distance is ideal and drops to 57.5kg with Shinn in the saddle. Deserves a chance. Tavi Bay returns and is a Group 1 performer with claims even under the heavy weight, while undefeated Sea The Sparkle is market mover and improving each run.
Race 2 (12:55pm) – $100,000 Twitter Trophy (1800m)
- #2 Pilote D’Essai ($6)
- #16 Data Point ($3.40)
- #3 Cool Chap ($5.50)
The four and five-year-olds face off in this Benchmark 90 and we’re in for a nice staying battle. Gives weight away by Pilote D’Essai shapes up as a big hope with Dunn aboard the Lindsay Park-trained six-year-old. Well placed. Data Point is the market mover and favourite with definite claims on the minimum weight from the gun gate coming off a string of seconds, while Cool Chap is ready to improve third-up and the trip should suit.
Race 3 (1:35pm) – $100,000 Off The Track Subzero Handicap (1400m)
- #2 Onerous ($5.50)
- #4 Murt The Flirt ($4.80)
- #6 Pepperano ($6)
Benchmark 90 for the greys, always a favourite for the ladies. The bookies look to have the order of the odds spot on and hard to see value outside of the best in betting. Chris Waller-trained Onerous in the ideal barrier (4) with Bowman aboard is a big chance and has been down the straight three times, including a win during the summer. Drops from 61kg last start and is still value. Money coming for Murt The Flirt one on her inside in a field full of depth after her last start Caulfield win over the distance, while the Liam Birchley-trained Pepperano is in flying form back in Brisbane and is two-from-three over 1400m.
Race 4 (2:15pm) – $100,000 3AW Talking Melbourne Mile (1600m)
- #4 Grand Rosso ($5)
- #6 Pay Up Bro ($3.50)
- #8 Violent Snow ($17)
Mile handicap where Grand Rosso comes off the soft Bendigo win over 1400m by the big margin and has the upside to improve and hold out the race favourite Pay Up Bro – over the distance for the third time shooting for a maiden top three run. Value is Violent Snow for the place with Craig Williams aboard the last start Moonee Valley winner over 1533 who drops a kilo for this.
Race 5 (2:55pm) – $150,000 Listed TCL QUHD TV Stakes (1800m)
- #4 Anaheim ($10)
- #13 Exocet ($2.45)
- #10 Rockstar Rebel ($6.50)
First of the Black-Types and the three-year-old stayers face off at set weights plus penalties. An open race where plenty have claims, but like the look of Anaheim at the double-figures. This colt has had five runs for five top three efforts and is down in distance from a 2040m win at Benalla. Exocet is the danger and favourite in barrier two, the Team Freedman-trained filly dropping notably in class after finishing under a length away fourth in the Group 2 MV Fillies Classic (1600m) on Cox Plate Day. Rockstar Rebel for exotics is firming fast for Darren Weir.
Race 6 (3:35pm) – $200,000 Group 3 L’Oreal Paris Stakes (1400m)
- #1 Takedown ($5)
- #2 Arod ($11)
- #11 Clearly Innocent ($4.20)
Race registered as the Chatham Stakes has some genuine types including the flying Takedown from Sydney. He gives the weight away but is the class horse in the field after back-to-back Group 2 wins in Sydney and the Caulfield second over the distance in Group 3 class to Voodoo Lad. Arod is a French import for Waller and one to watch, while Clearly Innocent jumps favourite and has Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy – the galloper to relish this trip.
Race 7 (4:15pm) – $150,000 Listed Mumm Stakes (1000m)
- #4 Hellbent ($1.90)
- #1 Terravista ($3)
- #6 Bullpit ($34)
Genuine short-distance sprint for the straight trackers with Group 1 performers making this a class affair. Hard to go past the in-form Hellbent who is odds-on for a reason. Comes off back-to-back wins and was impressive over 1100m at Caulfield winning by 2.25 lengths in latest September, freshened-up since and is undefeated at the distance. Terravista is the top-rated galloper and will thrive in this class, while value in Bullpit to improve second-up.
Race 8 (5:00pm) – $1,000,000 Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m)
- #1 Yankee Rose ($1.70)
- #5 Eleonora ($8.50)
- #6 Smart As You Think ($13)
Read our detailed 2016 Crown Oaks Tips: Trifecta Selections for all the facts / stats on why Yankee Rose is the one to beat in the big one this afternoon.
Race 9 (5:45pm) – $200,000 Group 3 Crown Resorts Plate (1100m)
- #5 Kentucky Miss ($5.50)
- #7 Super Too ($12)
- #9 Motown Lil ($20)
The sprint showdown for three-year-old fillies – known as the Red Roses Stakes – is a cracker even with Overstep scratched. Kentucky Miss is still nice value to post three on the trot, has winning form at the track / distance in stakes’ company from September from a wide alley to boot. Super Too can improve on fourth in that race after a freshen-up, while Motown Lil is overs at $20 for Robert Smerdon.
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win, subject to change and provided by Ladbrokes.com.au
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