Twelve months ago record-breaking Victorian horseman Darren Weir won the Melbourne Cup in an upset and this weekend he’s out to make history again this time in the 2016 Caulfield Cup with Real Love.
Just three mares remain to take on the boys in the $3 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) this weekend after the early scratching of Kiwi raider Fanatic due to a suspected spider bite.
While the price on Ciaron Maher’s Crown Oaks winner is easing to go back-to-back for the Caulfield Cup punters, money is coming in for fellow mare Real Love ($8 into $7).
She jumps from barrier 10, which last produced a Caulfield Cup winner only three years ago in Fawkner (2013), and comes off a Group 3 JRA Cup (2040m) win at Moonee Valley.
Getting in on a nice 52.5kg lightweight, the same as Jameka, Weir’s Desert King six-year-old is also advantaged by the booking of dual Caulfield Cup winning hoop Craig Williams.
Weir took over training of Real Love when her WA-based owner Bob Peters sent her over to Melbourne during the autumn and her new trainer believes she has the right lead-up and weight to score the right Caulfield Cup result for the stable.
“She gets into the race with the right weight and preparation,” Weir told The Sydney Morning Herald.
“It would be good to get it right by winning a Caulfield Cup. They are not easy to win but we’re there with a chance.
“You want to get it right for blokes like [Bob] and it would be great to get him a cup.”
So will Weir win his first Caulfield Cup on Saturday with his sole runner Real Love?
2016 Caulfield Cup Horse Form #12 Real Love
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Darren Weir
Owner/s: Peters Investments Pty Ltd
Breeding: by Desert King (IRE) from Flaming Heart
Last 6: 14×271
Prize Money: $1,321,910
Current 2016 Caulfield Cup Odds: $7
Why Real Love Can Win the Caulfield Cup 2016
- Her barrier 10 draw gives her options and has produced two recent winners – Ethereal (2001) and Fawkner (2013)
- She drops right down in weight to 52.5kg, a weight both Descarado and Southern Speed carried back-to-back in 2010 and 2011
- Big race specialist Craig Williams is a two-time Caulfield Cup winning jockey having ridden Southern Speed and Dunaden to victory in 2011 and 2012
- Weir might not have trained a Caulfield Cup winner but he won last year’s Melbourne Cup
- Has experience as a six-year-old and in the past decade three 6YOs have won the race
- The distance is ideal and she won a Perth Cup over the 2400m
- She should be ready to peak fourth-up
Why Real Love Won’t be the 2016 Caulfield Cup Winner
- She is under $10 to win in Caulfield Cup betting and only three winners in the past decade have won at single-figures
- Mares only have a fair recent record with Southern Speed (2011) the only to win since Ethereal (2001)
- Her 71% Place Rate makes her a better Each-Way or Exotic Caulfield Cup tip
- She won the JRA Cup last start and no Caulfield Cup winner in over 30 years had their final lead-up at Moonee Valley
- Caulfield is not her preferred track and from four runs at the course she has just the one second place effort
- As well as the JRA Cup her other lead-up runs – Dato’ (2nd) and Naturalism (7th) – historically have been poor Caulfield Cup indicators
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