A host of fillies have come out of Saturday’s Thoroughbred Club Stakes 2016 so who should you back and who should you sack from the remaining contingent in the Caulfield Guineas Day showdown?
Running as Caulfield Race 3 at 1:30pm (AEDT), this year’s $150,000 Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m) originally drew a final field of 16 three-year-old fillies.
Three scratchings see 13 still in the mix with the updated Thoroughbred Club Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au led by the rails-drawn In The Vanguard ($3.90).
John Sargent’s Encosta De Lago filly hasn’t raced since the end of February when she ran second to Scarlet Rain in the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m) at just her second career run.
It’s been a notable distance between starts then, but the bookies like the form of her recent September trials in Sydney including a big five length win over 893m at Rosehill.
In an open Thoroughbred Club Stakes betting market a further four chances are under $10 for the win including the market mover Prompt Response ($15 into $7.50) jumping from barrier two second-up off a Group 3 run.
So is it worth following the money or is there value backing an upset Thoroughbred Club Stakes result this spring from the likes of last start Champagne Stakes winner Selenia ($13) or runner-up in that same Moonee Valley lead-up Stop Making Sense ($8)?
#6 Prompt Response ($7.50)
Big market firmer but still at a really backable price for the win from a gun barrier two draw with Kerrin McEvoy retaining the ride on the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Beneteau filly. She ran second in a Group 3 on Melbourne Cup Day last year and went around the Victorian way again first-up when fourth, under a length off the winner, in The Valley’s Champagne Stakes. That could be the form to follow into this and she will be better second-up.
#8 Summer Glen ($18)
At knockout odds this local Mick Price-trained Snitzel filly is in the right form to surprise after a 1200m win in the wet at Kilmore a fortnight ago. She’s been at Caulfield once before when fourth to Valliano in mid-April and handled it well. A notable rise in class, but she’s in barrier four and is consistent.
#10 In The Vanguard ($3.90)
Well-supported favourite who has definite claims from barrier one first-up. Has had only two career starts and won on debut before the Group 2 Sydney second early in the year. Lead-up trials suggest she’s doing very well and is ready to get back on the bandwagon. Melbourne is the question, but could power home.
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