Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
A line-up of the season’s best three-year-olds face off in the Golden Rose 2016 in Sydney on Saturday, a comprehensive form guide analysis and betting update for the Rosehill Gardens classic found below.
Due to run as Rosehill Race 6 at 3:10pm (AEST) as the latest elite level of the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival, this year’s $1 million Group 1 De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose (1400m) features a field of 14 hopefuls.
Heading the latest Golden Rose Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, the race’s new favourite Astern ($3.80) has taken over the Chris Waller-trained filly Omei Sword who previously led the markets.
Omei Sword in barrier three has eased out to $4 in Golden Rose betting, while the John O’Shea-trained Run To The Rose winner Astern out in gate 12 is firming.
The other single-figure hopes the bookies are taking no chances with are the Team Hawkes-trained Up & Coming Stakes winner Divine Prophet ($4.50) and David Vandyke’s resuming ATC Sires’ Produce winning filly Yankee Rose who has been well-supported early in from $9.50 to $6.
So is it worth following the money trail or does the Golden Rose Stakes form guide, betting history and recent race statistics reveal value from a longer priced three-year-old in the mix?
2016 Golden Rose Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Golden Rose Stakes winner was the John O’Shea-trained Exosphere (2015) who came off a win in the Run To The Rose and jumped from barrier one (of eight) with James McDonald aboard the $2 favourite
- John O’Shea (8-1-0-1) returns in 2016 with two chances of going back-to-back as a trainer for the first time in over 30 years with #1 Astern ($3.80) and #7 Impending ($12)
- The other previous Golden Rose Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Peter Snowden (8-3-2-2) who saddles-up #9 Mediterranean ($26) in partnership with his son Paul; James Cummings with #3 Good Standing ($51) who won in partnership with his late grandfather Bart Cummings in 2014; John Hawkes (9-1-2-1) who trains #4 Divine Prophet ($4.50) in partnership with his sons Michael & Wayne; and Chris Waller (6-1-0-1) with #5 Nikitas ($51) and #13 Omei Sword ($4)
- Last year’s winning jockey James McDonald (5-1-0-1) chases a second win this weekend aboard #1 Astern and if successful will go back-to-back in the race for the first time since Hugh Bowman (2003-04)
- The other previous Golden Rose Stakes winning jockeys with a ride on Saturday are: Hugh Bowman (9-4-0-0) on #2 El Divino ($16), Glyn Schofield (6-1-0-1) on #3 Good Standing and Tommy Berry (3-1-0-0) on #4 Divine Prophet
- The Run To The Rose has produced five Golden Rose winners in the past decade including the past four on the trot and Hallowed Crown (2014) and Zoustar (2015) both completing the double #1 Astern chases on Saturday
- The other Run To The Rose graduates in the mix are: Impending (3rd), El Divino (4th), Mediterranean (5th), Nikitas (6th) and Good Standing (9th)
- The Up & Coming Stakes is the other best Golden Rose form-line from the past decade producing three winners including Manawanui (2011) and Court Command (2006) who completed the double #4 Divine Prophet is after on Saturday
- The other Up & Coming Stakes graduates in the mix are: Derryn (2nd) Thronum (3rd)
- Last year’s winning barrier (1) is the most successful in the past 30 years producing five winners and belongs on Saturday to triple-figure roughie #11 Chamalu ($151)
- The other best Golden Rose Stakes barriers producing four winners each (since 1983) are 2 and 11 drawn this year by #2 El Divino and #10 Oink ($101) respectively
- Three favourites have saluted for the punters in the past 10 years and #1 Astern is out to be the next based on the current Golden Rose markets with #13 Omei Sword the next best in betting
- Just three fillies have won the Golden Rose in over 30 years and Forensics (2008) was the last; the fillies in the mix this year are: #12 Yankee Rose, #13 Omei Sword and #14 O’Reilly Cyrus
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #11 Chamalu (100%) who has had just one run to date followed by #1 Astern (80%) and #12 Yankee Rose (75%)
- Four in the field boast a 100% Place Rate with: #6 Thronum, #7 Impending, #22 Yankee Rose and #11 Chamalu
- Over the distance (1400m) the only runners with previous top three form are: #12 Yankee Rose (1-1-0-0), #14 O’Reilly Cyrus (1-0-1-0) and #5 Nikitas (1-0-0-1)
- At the track (Rosehill) those with winning form are: #1 Astern (3-2-0-0), #12 Yankee Rose (3-2-1-0), #13 Omei Sword (2-1-1-0) and #7 Impending (2-1-0-1)
Stay tuned for the Races.com.au insider Golden Rose Stakes tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime check out the full Golden Rose Stakes 2016 form guide below courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au.
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