This Saturday the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival begins in earnest with the BTC Cup 2016, a detailed form guide and betting preview for which is found below.
Running as Doomben Race 7 at 4:06pm (AEST), this season’s $500,000 Group 1 BTC Cup (1200m) features a final field of 14 hopefuls led in betting at Ladbrokes.com.au by the Chris Waller-trained three-year-old Japonisme ($4.20).
He won the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) in the spring and the Group 2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint (1200m) last time out in Melbourne and Sydney respectively and is now looking to bring his brilliance to Brisbane.
Battling for favouritism in BTC Cup betting this Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival currently paying $4.40 is last start Group 2 Victory Stakes winner over the same track and distance Fell Swoop.
Matthew Dale’s Canberra-trained four-year-old hit the line well that day and is up in class this weekend jumping from barrier 10, while Japonisme has drawn ideally in gate three for his hoop Glyn Schofield.
The bookies rate Stradbroke Handicap-bound Malaguerra ($6) and Victory Stakes third placegetter Artlee ($8.50) as the other major players in this year’s BTC Cup field.
That’s the betting rundown but does the BTC Cup form guide and historical statistics reveal value further down the markets?
2016 BTC Cup Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s BTC Cup winner was the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Hot Snitzel ($25) who came off a third in Sydney’s Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes and jumped from barrier 2 (of 13) with Blake Shinn in the saddle
- Team Snowden (1-1-0-0) are back this winter shooting for back-to-back wins with #4 Dothraki ($13) and #7 Charlie Boy ($14)
- The only other previous BTC Cup winning trainer with a runner on Saturday is Gai Waterhouse (5-1-1-2) with #14 Echo Gal ($41)
- Jockey Blake Shinn (4-1-2-0) also shoots for two BTC Cup wins on the trot with #4 Dothraki for the Snowden stable
- The other previous BTC Cup winning jockeys with a ride this weekend are: Jim Byrne (12-1-0-1) on #5 Sacred Star, Michael Cahill (7-1-1-1) on #6 Artlee and Damian Browne (7-1-0-1) on #7 Charlie Boy
- Last year’s winning barrier (2) has produced three winners (since 1983) and belongs this year to #14 Echo Gal
- The most successful BTC Cup barrier in that time producing five winners is barrier five drawn on Saturday by #10 Liberation ($101), followed by gate four with four winners drawn by #6 Artlee ($8.50)
- The last last-start winner to take out the race was Black Caviar (2011) won the TJ Smith Stakes in the lead-up
- There are three last-start winners in the field this year with: #2 Fell Swoop (Group 2 Victory Stakes, 1200m, Doomben, 30/04/2016), #5 Sacred Star (Group 3 Darley Plate, 1200m, Ellerslie, NZ, 05/03/2016) and #11 Japonisme (Group 2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint, 1200m, Randwick, 09/04/2016)
- The Victory Stakes has produced two of the past six BTC Cup winners with Famous Seamus (5th in 2014) and Albert The Fat (3rd in 2010)
- Along with the winner Fell Swoop (1st) the only other Victory Stakes graduate backing up in the BTC Cup on Saturday is Artlee (3rd)
- Five of the past 10 BTC Cup winners were five-year-olds and the 5YOs in the mix this year are: #4 Dothraki, #6 Artlee and #7 Charlie Boy
- Three of the past 7 winners were three-year-olds and the two youngsters taking on the older sprinters on Saturday are: #11 Japonisme and #12 Counterattack both prepared by Chris Waller
- #11 Japonisme ($4.20) is the current BTC Cup betting favourite
- Favourites have won just twice in the past decade, most recently Black Caviar (2011)
- The past three winners were double-figure hopes and two jumped at $20 or longer to score the upset
- Three female gallopers have beaten home the boys since 2006 most recently three-year-old filly Sea Siren (2012); the mares in the line-up this season are #13 Two Blue ($31) and #14 Echo Gal
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #2 Fell Swoop (64%) followed by $8 Malaguerra (53%), #6 Artlee (46%) and #11 Japonisme (43%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #2 Fell Swoop (86%) followed by #11 Japonisme (79%)
- The horses with the best winning strike rate over the distance (1200m) are: #9 Target In Sight (15-5-6-1), #1 Delectation (15-4-4-2), #2 Fell Swoop (5-4-1-0), #13 Two Blue (10-4-1-1), #4 Dothraki (14-3-3-5), #8 Malaguerra (5-3-1-0), #10 Liberation (7-3-1-1) and #11 Japonisme (9-3-0-3)
- The previous winners at the track (Doomben) are: #10 Liberation (6-2-2-1), #2 Fell Swoop (1-1-0-0) and #7 Charlie Boy (3-1-1-0)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider BTC Cup 2016 betting tips to be published shortly.
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