Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
A star-studded field of 15 sprinters face off in Saturday’s TJ Smith Stakes 2016, a comprehensive form guide preview and betting analysis of the Randwick major detailed below.
Set to run as Randwick Race 8 at 4:30pm (AEDT) on Day 1 of ‘The Championships’, the $2.5 million Group 1 Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au feature three single figure hopes.
Current top fancy at $2.70 and firming for the win is the John O’Shea-trained Exosphere who is second-up and chasing his third win from as many starts two runs into a campaign.
Winner of the Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) last September, his lead-up run was a brave fourth in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) at Flemington on February 20.
Black Caviar Lightning winner Chautauqua backed up with a close fourth in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and is the next best in the TJ Smith Stakes odds this year at a current quote of $3.40 to successfully defend his title in the Doncaster Mile Day showdown.
The last hope under $10 for the win is the Gai Waterhouse-trained filly English ($9) drawn wide out in gate 14, her trainer chasing her fourth win in the Group 1.
That’s what is going on in the TJ Smith Stakes betting markets, but does the form guide and betting history reveal value further down the odds?
2016 TJ Smith Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the Team Hawkes-trained Chautauqua (2015) who came off a Newmarket Handicap second and jumped from barrier 8 (of 10) with Tommy Berry in the saddle
- #1 Chautauqua ($3.40) is back on Saturday to defend his title and become the first multiple winner since Black Caviar won on non-successive years in 2011 and 2013
- Co-trainer John Hawkes (14-1-2-1) chases his third win overall having also won the TJ Smith Stakes as a solo trainer with Ab Initio (1999) saddling up #1 Chautauqua along with #5 Our Boy Malachi ($21)
- The other previous TJ Smith Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Joe Pride (13-1-1-1) with #4 Terravista ($13) and Gai Waterhouse (10-3-1-2) with #15 English ($9)
- Last year’s winning jockey Tommy Berry (3-1-0-1) shoots for back-to-back wins on the defending champion #1 Chautauqua
- The other previous TJ Smith Stakes winning jockeys with a ride on the weekend are: Hugh Bowman (11-1-1-3) on #3 Delectation ($19) and Blake Shinn (3-1-1-0) on #15 English
- Last year’s winning barrier (8) has produced just the one winner since 1983 and belongs this year to #2 Flamberge ($19)
- The most successful TJ Smith Stakes barrier in that time with five wins is gate five drawn this year by #7 Dothraki ($26)
- Last start winners have won three of the past five editions and the only last start winner in the mix this season is #2 Flamberge (Group 1 William Reid Stakes, 1200m, Moonee Valley, 24/03/2016)
- No TJ Smith Stakes winner has finished worse than fourth in the lead-up since Red Oog (2006); this year runners coming off a top four finish are #1 Chautauqua, #2 Flamberge, #7 Dothraki, #9 Shiraz, #10 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, #13 Fell Swoop and #14 Exosphere
- Flemington’s Newmarket Handicap in Melbourne has produced the past two TJ Smith Stakes winners including Lankan Rupee (2014) who completed the double
- The Newmarket Handicap graduates backing up on Saturday are: Chautauqua (3rd) and Delectation (9th)
- Favourites have a strong record in the race winning four times in the past 10 years most recently with Lankan Rupee (2014)
- This year’s favourite is #14 Exosphere ($2.70)
- Fillies and mares have won three times in the past six years and the only girl taking on the boys in the TJ Smith Stakes this year is three-year-old #15 English
- Four-year-olds have won three times in the past six years including the past two on the trot and the 4YOs in the field on Saturday are: #3 Delectation and #13 Fell Swoop ($21)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #4 Our Boy Malachi (78%) followed by #13 Fell Swoop (67%) and #14 Exosphere (56%)
- The best Place Rate of the runners belongs to #1 Chautauqua (90%) followed by #5 Our Boy Malachi (87%) and #13 Fell Swoop (83%)
- Every runner in the field has winning form over 1200m but the previous winners at the track and distance are: #4 Terravista (5-4-0-1), #12 Boss Lane (10-3-1-1), #3 Delectation (4-2-0-1), #5 Our Boy Malachi (2-2-0-0), #1 Chautauqua (2-1-0-0), #8 Famous Seamus (6-1-0-1), #14 Exosphere (1-1-0-0) and #15 English (1-1-0-0)
Stay tuned for our exclusive TJ Smith Stakes 2016 betting tips to be published shortly.
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2016 TJ Smith Stakes Form Guide
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