2016 ATC Derby Form Guide & Betting Preview

A star-studded field of the season’s best three-year-old stayers take to the Royal Randwick track on Saturday in an epic ATC Derby 2016 showdown, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for which is found below.


Tarzino is the firming odds-on 2016 Australian Derby favourite for Royal Randwick on Saturday. Photo: Steve Hart.

Mick Price’s Victoria Derby from the spring and last start champ in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) Tarzino is the one to beat in this year’s $2 million Group 1 BMW Australian Derby (2400m).

Of the 13 in the mix he is the clear favourite in ATC Derby betting at Ladbrokes.com.au at a now odds-on price of $1.95 for the win after shortening from his opening quote of $2.

He is drawn to get the run of the race from barrier six and is the class galloper of the Derby this year.

Following Tarzino in the ATC Derby odds this Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival are the likes of Alister Clark Stakes winner Tally ($6.50) shooting for his fifth win on the trot and Crown Oaks winning filly Jameka ($6.50) coming off a Rosehill Guineas third.

That’s the bookies’ take on this year’s Australian Derby field but what does the form guide, betting history and race statistics reveal?

2016 ATC Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Australian Derby winner was the Murray Baker-trained Mongolian Khan who came off a fifth in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and jumped from barrier 1 (of 10) with Opie Bosson in the saddle.
  • Mongolian Khan (2015) was the second New Zealand-trained horse in three years to win the ATC Derby joining the fellow Baker-trained It’s A Dundeel (2013)
  • This year the Kiwi visitors in the mix are #8 What’s The Story ($16), #9 Tavago ($34) and #11 Oh So Splendido ($201)
  • There are no previous ATC Derby winning trainers with a runner this year
  • Last year’s winning hoop Opie Bosson (1-1-0-0) is back on Saturday chasing successive wins by a jockey in the ATC Derby for the first time since Darren Beadman (2006-07) aboard #6 Torgersen ($16) for Sydney’s Chris Waller
  • The other previous ATC Derby winning jockeys with a ride this autumn are: Hugh Bowman (10-1-1-0) on #2 Vanbrugh, James McDonald (3-1-1-0) on #4 Tally and Damien Oliver (13-1-2-1) on #13 Jameka
  • Last year’s winning barrier (1) has produced a total of five winners (since 1983) and belongs on Saturday to #9 Tavago
  • The most successful ATC Derby barrier in that time with seven wins – including three in the past six years – is gate eight drawn this season by #2 Vanbrugh ($10)
  • Last start winners have won two of the past four editions and the last start winners in this year’s ATC Derby field are: #1 Tarzino (Group 1 Rosehill Guineas, 2000m, Rosehill, 19/03/2016) and #4 Tally (Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes, 2040m, Moonee Valley, 18/03/2016)
  • Only two Australian Derby winners have come off a non-Sydney lead up in over 30 years
  • The Rosehill Guineas has produced more ATC Derby champions than any other race including six in the past seven years with It’s A Dundeel (2013) and Criterion (2014) the latest to do the double
  • #1 Tarzino ($1.95) shoots for the Rosehill Guineas – Australian Derby double on Saturday
  • The other Rosehill Guineas graduates backing up in this year’s Derby are: Jameka (3rd), Vanbrugh (4th), Etymology (6th), Crosley Hotshot (9th) and Gold Ambition (11th)
  • The last filly to beat home the boys in the Australian Derby was Shamrocker (2011) who broke a drought going back to Research in 1989
  • The only filly in the field this year is #13 Jameka ($6.50)
  • Favourites have won three times in the past decade most recently Criterion (2014); the favourite this year is #1 Tarzino ($1.95)
  • The horse with the highest Win Rate in the field is #4 Tally (56%) followed by #1 Tarzino (44%)
  • The best Place Rate also belongs to #4 Tally (78%) equal with #1 Tarzino (78%), followed by #13 Jameka (75%) #9 Tavago (67%) and #10 Crosley Hotshot (63%)
  • The only previous winners over a similar distance are #1 Tarzino and #13 Jameka who won the VRC Derby and VRC Oaks over 2500m respectively in the Spring
  • The previous winners at the track (Randwick) are: #2 Vanbrugh (3-2-0-0), #6 Torgersen (2-1-0-0) and #10 Crosley Hotshot (1-1-0-0)

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Australian Derby 2016 betting tips published shortly.

In the meantime read the full ATC Derby form guide below then head to Ladbrokes.com.au to sign-up, deposit and quote the code BETBONUS to enjoy up to $500 in bonuses for a short time only!

2016 Australian Derby Form Guide


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