A full field of middle distance gallopers take to the Rosehill Gardens track in the last on The BMW Day in Sydney this Saturday for the Doncaster Prelude 2016, betting tips and updated odds for the handicap clash found below.
Closing the Easter Saturday card as Rosehill Race 9 at 5:50pm (AEDT), this year’s $150,000 Group 3 Hyland Race Colours Doncaster Prelude (1500m) will run at capacity with 16 starters, plus there are two emergencies waiting to gain a start.
Leading the current Doncaster Prelude betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au at a quote of $3.80 is Excess Knowledge drawn the rails but carrying the 58.5kg top weight.
This Gai Waterhouse-trained import won the race last year before going out for a spell, and has won once since in the Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) in the spring.
A brave Melbourne Cup seventh over the two miles followed before he returned to racing with a second in the Group 2 Ajax Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill a fortnight back.
He had 58kg on his back when beaten only a half-length, and even going up a half-kilo on Saturday is tipped to get a gun run from the inside alley over the same track and distance and win the Prelude before possible seven day turnaround into the $3 million Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Randwick.
Following the defending champ in the Doncaster Prelude markets are the likes of Chris Waller’s in-form five-year-old Amovatio ($8) out in the second widest alley and the Gerald Ryan-trained Dances On Stars ($8) who finished third in the Ajax last time out.
So will Excess Knowledge go back-to-back or is there value further down the odds from the likes of Joe Pride’s Group 1 Emirates Stakes third placegetter from the spring Rock Sturdy ($10), four-year-old Sadler’s Lake ($9.50) running on successive Saturdays at Rosehill or even Waller’s former Doomben Cup winner Beaten Up ($12)?
#1 Excess Knowledge ($3.80)
He has the top weight to overcome, but think class will outweigh kilos and Waterhouse’s Monsun stallion can win this race for the second year in a row. His first-up second in the Ajax Stakes from a wide alley with half a kilo less was brave and he’ll be fitter for the run. His spring form over more metres was imposing, and if he does only a little better than his resuming effort he’ll be winning for the punters.
#2 Beaten Up ($12)
Claims for and against Waller’s rising nine-year-old who is a veteran out to break a very lengthy drought. Don’t think he’ll win, but he can finish in the money against this field. Trialled well at the track on March 14 over 1030m, 1500m is okay but he’d like longer pretty quick. Was runner-up in the Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) in the spring and can surprise with a top three run.
#8 Sadler’s Lake ($9.50)
Waller has the advantage numbers-wise and Sadler’s Lake is one of the best fancied of his contingent. He has the outside alley to overcome in a big field, but the four-year-old’s run in last Saturday’s rescheduled Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap (1350m) here was eye-catching.
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