Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Thursday night Moonee Valley Racecourse hosts the latest Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival Group 1 with the William Reid Stakes 2016 running at the track, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the sprint classic found below.
Set to run as Moonee Valley Race 6 at 9:15pm (AEDT), this year’s $500,000 Mitchelton Wines William Reid Stakes (1200m) features a final field of 12 weight-for-age hopefuls.
Leading the latest William Reid Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au paying a firming $3.40 for the win is last year’s defending champion Lucky Hussler.
No horse has gone back-to-back in the William Reid Stakes since Apache Cat (2008-09), but super star mare Black Caviar won twice in 2011 and 2013.
Lucky Hussler has last year’s winning hoop Glen Boss back aboard and jumps from a good barrier five draw this season.
The main dangers in William Reid Stakes betting according to the bookies are two of the three-year-olds in the mix with the John O’Shea-trained Canterbury Stakes winner Holler ($4.20) and Chris Waller’s Group 1 winner at Flemington over the distance last Melbourne Cup Carnival Japonisme ($5.50).
So will Lucky Hussler win again or does the William Reid Stakes form guide, historical data and betting statistics reveal value further down the markets?
2016 William Reid Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s William Reid Stakes winner was the Darren Weir-trained Lucky Hussler who won first-up from barrier two (of 14) with Glen Boss aboard as an $11 shot in betting
- #1 Lucky Hussler ($3.40) returns this season after another win but is third-up this time and is drawn in barrier five with Boss retaining the ride
- Along with #1 Lucky Hussler Darren Weir is also represented in the field this year by #8 Scarlet Billows ($41)
- Aside from Weir (1-1-0-0) the other previous William Reid Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Peter Moody (9-2-2-1) with #2 Flamberge and #12 Kinglike; David Hayes (10-1-1-1) who prepares #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, #6 Churchill Dancer and #7 Gregers in partnership with Tom Dabernig; John O’Shea (3-1-0-0) with #10 Holler; and John Hawkes (12-3-1-2) who trains #11 Headwater along with his sons Michael and Wayne
- Along with last year’s winning hoop Glen Boss (5-2-1-0) on the defending champ the other previous William Reid Stakes winning jockeys with a ride are: Craig Newitt (6-1-0-0) on #3 The Quarterback, Steven Arnold (10-2-1-2) on #5 It Is Written and Damien Oliver (17-1-4-1) on #8 Scarlet Billows
- Last year’s winning barrier (2) has produced a total of three winners (since 1983) and belongs on Thursday night to #2 Flamberge ($12)
- The most successful William Reid Stakes barrier in that time with seven winners is gate one drawn this year by #8 Scarlet Billows; followed by gate six (5 winners) belonging to #3 The Quarterback
- The last five William Reid Stakes winners ran top three in their lead-up Group run; this year that rules out #6 Churchill Dancer (4th), #7 Gergers (8th) #8 Scarlet Billows (5th), #9 Japonisme (5th) and #11 Headwater (11th)
- The Newmarket Handicap at Flemington has produced three of the past five winners; this year the hopefuls backing up out of the Newmarket are: The Quarterback (1st), Churchill Dancer (4th) and Japonisme (5th)
- #3 The Quarterback ($15) is out to complete the Newmarket Handicap – William Reid Stakes double for the first time since Black Caviar (2011)
- Five-year-olds boast four wins in the race in the past decade including Lucky Hussler (2015) last year; the 5YOs in this year’s field are: #3 The Quarterback, #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, #6 Churchill Dancer, #7 Gregers and #8 Scarlet Billows
- Mares have won four of the past 10 editions most recently Black Caviar (2013) for her second; the mares taking on the boys this season are: #7 Gregers and #8 Scarlet Billows
- The favourites have saluted for the punters four times in the past 10 years, a statistic boosted by Black Caviar’s dual wins; #1 Lucky Hussler is the current favourite this season
- Four last-start winners have won since 2006; the horses coming off a win this year are: #2 Flamberge (Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, 1100m, Caulfield, 27/02/2016), #3 The Quarterback (Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, 1200m, Flemington, 12/03/2016) and #10 Holler (Group 1 Canterbury Stakes, 1300m, Randwick, 05/03/2016)
- No William Reid Stakes winner has come off a non-Melbourne lead-up since Spanish Mix (1993)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #9 Japonisme (42%) followed by #10 Holler (40%) and #12 Kinglike (40%)
- The best Place Rate meanwhile belongs to #10 Holler (80%) and #12 Kinglike (80%) followed by #9 Japonisme (75%) and #3 The Quarterback (63%)
- Horses with the best record over the distance (1200m) are: #5 It Is Written (34-8-3-5), #2 Flamberge (13-5-1-1), #6 Churchill Dancer (23-5-5-4), #1 Lucky Hussler (10-4-1-1), #8 Scarlet Billows (13-4-3-0), #3 The Quarterback (7-3-1-2) and #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking (19-3-2-2)
- Those with the best winning strike rate at the track (Moonee Valley) are: #5 It Is Written (25-7-3-4), #7 Gregers (7-3-2-0), #8 Scarlet Billows (3-2-1-0) and #10 Holler (2-2-0-0)
Stay tuned for our insider William Reid Stakes 2016 betting tips.
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2016 William Reid Stakes Form Guide
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