2016 William Reid Stakes Form Guide & Betting Preview

This Thursday night Moonee Valley Racecourse hosts the latest Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival Group 1 with the William Reid Stakes 2016 running at the track, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the sprint classic found below.

Lucky Hussler

Reigning William Reid Stakes winner Lucky Hussler defends his title at Moonee Valley this Thursday night. Photo: Adrienne Bicknell.

Set to run as Moonee Valley Race 6 at 9:15pm (AEDT), this year’s $500,000 Mitchelton Wines William Reid Stakes (1200m) features a final field of 12 weight-for-age hopefuls.

Leading the latest William Reid Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au paying a firming $3.40 for the win is last year’s defending champion Lucky Hussler.

No horse has gone back-to-back in the William Reid Stakes since Apache Cat (2008-09), but super star mare Black Caviar won twice in 2011 and 2013.

Lucky Hussler has last year’s winning hoop Glen Boss back aboard and jumps from a good barrier five draw this season.

The main dangers in William Reid Stakes betting according to the bookies are two of the three-year-olds in the mix with the John O’Shea-trained Canterbury Stakes winner Holler ($4.20) and Chris Waller’s Group 1 winner at Flemington over the distance last Melbourne Cup Carnival Japonisme ($5.50).

So will Lucky Hussler win again or does the William Reid Stakes form guide, historical data and betting statistics reveal value further down the markets?

2016 William Reid Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s William Reid Stakes winner was the Darren Weir-trained Lucky Hussler who won first-up from barrier two (of 14) with Glen Boss aboard as an $11 shot in betting
  • #1 Lucky Hussler ($3.40) returns this season after another win but is third-up this time and is drawn in barrier five with Boss retaining the ride
  • Along with #1 Lucky Hussler Darren Weir is also represented in the field this year by #8 Scarlet Billows ($41)
  • Aside from Weir (1-1-0-0) the other previous William Reid Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Peter Moody (9-2-2-1) with #2 Flamberge and #12 Kinglike; David Hayes (10-1-1-1) who prepares #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, #6 Churchill Dancer and #7 Gregers in partnership with Tom Dabernig; John O’Shea (3-1-0-0) with #10 Holler; and John Hawkes (12-3-1-2) who trains #11 Headwater along with his sons Michael and Wayne
  • Along with last year’s winning hoop Glen Boss (5-2-1-0) on the defending champ the other previous William Reid Stakes winning jockeys with a ride are: Craig Newitt (6-1-0-0) on #3 The Quarterback, Steven Arnold (10-2-1-2) on #5 It Is Written and Damien Oliver (17-1-4-1) on #8 Scarlet Billows
  • Last year’s winning barrier (2) has produced a total of three winners (since 1983) and belongs on Thursday night to #2 Flamberge ($12)
  • The most successful William Reid Stakes barrier in that time with seven winners is gate one drawn this year by #8 Scarlet Billows; followed by gate six (5 winners) belonging to #3 The Quarterback
  • The last five William Reid Stakes winners ran top three in their lead-up Group run; this year that rules out #6 Churchill Dancer (4th), #7 Gergers (8th) #8 Scarlet Billows (5th), #9 Japonisme (5th) and #11 Headwater (11th)
  • The Newmarket Handicap at Flemington has produced three of the past five winners; this year the hopefuls backing up out of the Newmarket are: The Quarterback (1st), Churchill Dancer (4th) and Japonisme (5th)
  • #3 The Quarterback ($15) is out to complete the Newmarket Handicap – William Reid Stakes double for the first time since Black Caviar (2011)
  • Five-year-olds boast four wins in the race in the past decade including Lucky Hussler (2015) last year; the 5YOs in this year’s field are: #3 The Quarterback, #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, #6 Churchill Dancer, #7 Gregers and #8 Scarlet Billows
  • Mares have won four of the past 10 editions most recently Black Caviar (2013) for her second; the mares taking on the boys this season are: #7 Gregers and #8 Scarlet Billows
  • The favourites have saluted for the punters four times in the past 10 years, a statistic boosted by Black Caviar’s dual wins; #1 Lucky Hussler is the current favourite this season
  • Four last-start winners have won since 2006; the horses coming off a win this year are: #2 Flamberge (Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, 1100m, Caulfield, 27/02/2016), #3 The Quarterback (Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, 1200m, Flemington, 12/03/2016) and #10 Holler (Group 1 Canterbury Stakes, 1300m, Randwick, 05/03/2016)
  • No William Reid Stakes winner has come off a non-Melbourne lead-up since Spanish Mix (1993)
  • The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #9 Japonisme (42%) followed by #10 Holler (40%) and #12 Kinglike (40%)
  • The best Place Rate meanwhile belongs to #10 Holler (80%) and #12 Kinglike (80%) followed by #9 Japonisme (75%) and #3 The Quarterback (63%)
  • Horses with the best record over the distance (1200m) are: #5 It Is Written (34-8-3-5), #2 Flamberge (13-5-1-1), #6 Churchill Dancer (23-5-5-4), #1 Lucky Hussler (10-4-1-1), #8 Scarlet Billows (13-4-3-0), #3 The Quarterback (7-3-1-2) and #4 Fast ‘N’ Rocking (19-3-2-2)
  • Those with the best winning strike rate at the track (Moonee Valley) are: #5 It Is Written (25-7-3-4), #7 Gregers (7-3-2-0), #8 Scarlet Billows (3-2-1-0) and #10 Holler (2-2-0-0)

Stay tuned for our insider William Reid Stakes 2016 betting tips.

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2016 William Reid Stakes Form Guide


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