Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The richest race on the Rosehill Gardens race card for Saturday is the Golden Slipper 2016, betting tips for the $3.5 million juveniles’ classic found below.
Running as Rosehill Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEDT) a capacity field of two-year-old sprinters face off in this year’s Group 1 Longines Golden Slipper (1200m).
Current top fancy in the Golden Slipper odds at Ladbrokes.com.au paying $3 for the win is the Mick Price-trained Blue Diamond Stakes winner Extreme Choice.
A winner of all three of his starts to date the Not A Single Doubt colt has been the benchmark youngster of the autumn.
The last horse to win the Blue Diamond Stakes – Golden Slipper double without another lead-up run in between however was Courtza (1989), giving Extreme Choice a hoodoo to overcome this weekend.
He is followed in the Golden Slipper betting markets but just two other runners under $10 to take out the lucrative $2 million first prize for connections.
Second favourite at $5 is the fellow Price-trained Flying Artie who was brave in Blue Diamond defeat (2nd) last time out behind his star stablemate after the tough run from barrier 15 of 16.
Jockey Damien Oliver retains the ride on the son of Artie Schiller on Saturday, the up-and-comer faring much betting in the Golden Slipper barriers with gate five – possibly into 4 if the emergency Moqueen (4) doesn’t gain a start in the world’s richest race for two-year-olds.
The last of the single figure fancies paying $9 is one-time favourite Capitalist from the stables of Peter & Paul Snowden.
Drawn in barrier two with Blake Shinn continuing his association with the talented Written Tycoon colt, Capitalist won his first three starts including the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast in January.
He suffered his first defeat in a shock Randwick loss a fortnight back however behind the Gai Waterhouse-trained Kiss And Make Up in the Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m), a race that has produced four of the past seven Golden Slipper winners.
So do the bookies have it right? Will the first three in the markets run the trifecta in the Golden Slipper Stakes? Or should punters be looking further down the odds for the value in a runner like Waterhouse’s Todman winner Kiss And Make Up ($10) or his widely-drawn Sweet Embrace Stakes winning stablemate Scarlet Rain ($21) who also represents the six-time winning trainer Waterhouse?
#4 Kiss And Make Up ($10)
This is a progressive son of More Than Ready that looks primed to strike in a big way three runs into his career, which master Slipper trainer Waterhouse has timed to perfection. She holds the training record of six previous trophies with her late father Tommy Smith and could be in line for a seventh on Saturday, her second on the trot. Vancouver completed the Todman Stakes – Slipper double for the stable 12 months ago, and this is an attractive price for the lightly-raced Kiss And Make Up to do the same. He scored the upset over Capitalist by over two lengths in the Todman, but keep in mind there were only four in the field that day. Will the Sydney form hold up over that of Melbourne’s Blue Diamond? History and statistics say yes. It will come down to class and luck in the run, but Kerrin McEvoy knows this horse and this race and the barrier (9 possibly into 8) gives this horse every hope.
#1 Extreme Choice ($3)
There is no denying the talent of Price’s Blue Diamond winner, but at $3 for the win, it’s a risk to stick with the favourite here. He has winning Sydney form this way of going from December when blitzing the Inglis Nursery field by two lengths, and won a Group 3 and Group 1 in Caulfield since. The barrier this weekend (7 possibly into 6) looks pretty good, but Craig Newitt is yet to ride a Slipper winner and his recent Sydney strike-rate is only fare. That said, Extreme Choice is a good two-year-old and his winning times have been quick so they’ll need to be fast to hold him out.
#11 Scarlet Rain ($21)
Waterhouse is a freak when it comes to Golden Slipper results and this filly is more than capable of finishing in the money in an open market at good odds. She has a wide gate to overcome (16 into 15), but double digits have produced three recent Slipper winners including Vancouver (16 of 16) last year. Tommy Berry rode him as well as Overreach from the inside alley in 2013 for Waterhouse, so he has the experience in the race to put Scarlet Rain in the mix. She has won three-from-three to date including at this track in January and won the Group 2 Sweet Embrace from a wide gate (12 of 12) last start. The fillies have a good Slipper strike-rate in recent times, she’s from the right stable and is out to complete the double last achieved by Crystal Lily (2010).
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