The richest race on the Flemington card for ‘Super Saturday’ this weekend is the weight-for-age Australian Cup 2016, the Races.com.au team’s insider form guide and betting analysis for which is found below.
Set to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEDT) this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) originally attracted 11 hopefuls but the scratching of the Peter Gelagotis-trained Mourinho (2) leaves 10 in the mix.
Heading the latest Australian Cup odds at Ladbrokes.com.au paying $3.10 for the win is Bow Creek in the outside alley for jockey Damien Oliver who rode the 2014 winner Fiorente.
Like Fiorente, Bow Creek won the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m) in the lead-up to the Australian Cup and is top fancy to complete the double on Saturday for his Godolphin connections and trainer John O’Shea.
Next best in Australian Cup betting this Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival are the spring’s Caulfield Cup third placed import Our Ivanhowe ($5.50) jumping from the inside barrier and the market mover Preferment ($6) for Sydney’s Chris Waller.
So will the favourites get the job done or does the Australian Cup form guide, betting history and statistics reveal value further down the markets?
2016 Australia Cup Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Cup winner was the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Spillway ($12) who came off a fourth in the Peter Young Stakes and jumped from barrier eight (of 16) with Michael Walker aboard
- This year Hayes & Dabernig (2-1-1-0) shoot for back-to-back wins with #3 Extra Zero ($41), #7 Almoonqith ($21) and #9 Rising Romance ($8.50)
- David Hayes also prepared the 2009 and 1991 Australian Cup winners before partnering with Dabernig
- The other previous Australian Cup winning trainer with a runner this year is Lee Freedman (19-2-1-6) who trains #5 Our Ivanhowe in partnership with Lee Freedman
- Jockey Michael Walker (3-1-0-0) attempts back-to-back wins this season on #7 Almoonqith
- The other previous Australian Cup winning hoops with a ride on Saturday are: Damien Oliver (16-1-3-5) aboard #6 Bow Creek and Craig Williams (12-1-2-0) on #9 Rising Romance
- Last year’s winning barrier (8) has produced five winners (since 1983) making it the most successful in recent history and belongs this year to #8 Awesome Rock ($19) who comes in from nine
- The other most successful Australian Cup barriers in that time are 2, 5 and 7 with four winners each; the horses jumping from those gates on Saturday are now #3 Extra Zero (3 into 2), #9 Rising Romance (6 into 5) and #1 Happy Trails (8 into 7)
- The Peter Young Stakes (formerly the St George Stakes) has produced four of the past five Australian Cup winners including Spillway (4th) last year and also seven straight from 2002 – 2007
- The Peter Young Stakes graduates backing up in the Group 1 on Saturday are: Bow Creek (1st), Fenway (2nd), Awesome Rock (4th), Our Ivanhowe (5th), Rising Romance (6th), Happy Trails (7th) and Almoonqith (9th)
- #6 Bow Creek ($3.10) is out to complete the Peter Young Stakes – Australian Cup double most recently achieved by Fiorente (2014) and is the only last start winner in the field on Saturday
- Bow Creek is also the race favourite and is looking to join Fiorente (2014) as the only favourite to salute for the punters since Lonhro (2004)
- Mares also have a poor Australian Cup record with the only one to win since Dane Ripper (1998) being the mighty Makybe Diva (2005)
- The mares looking to break the hoodoo this year are: #9 Rising Romance, #10 Suavito and #11 Fenway
- The horse with the highest Win Rate is #10 Suavito (40%) followed by #5 Our Ivanhowe (31%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #10 Suavito (80%) followed by #9 Rising Romance (54%) and #11 Fenway (54%)
- The runners with the best form over the distance (2000m) are: #1 Happy Trails (16-2-3-2), #2 Preferment (4-2-1-0), #3 Extra Zero (38-2-12-5), #9 Rising Romance (7-1-3-0) and #11 Fenway (4-1-1-1)
- At the Flemington track those with the best strike rate are: #1 Happy Trails (12-3-0-2), #2 Preferment (3-2-0-0), #3 Extra Zero (32-2-10-2), #10 Suavito (5-2-1-1) and #8 Awesome Rock (4-1-1-0)
- The previous last start winners at the Track / Distance are: #1 Happy Trails (7-2-0-1), #2 Preferment (1-1-0-0), #3 Extra Zero (14-1-6-0) and #10 Suavito (1-1-0-0)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Australian Cup 2016 betting tips up shortly.
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