The sole Group 1 race in Melbourne this weekend is the Australian Guineas 2016 at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the three-years-old classic found below.
Due to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEDT), this season’s $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) features a full field of 16 starters.
Leading the current Australian Guineas odds at Ladbrokes.com.au paying $3.40 for the win is the market mover Xtravagant, a dual Group 1 winning Kiwi raider set to debut down under in the Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival feature.
Drawn a treat in barrier three with New Zealand’s Matthew Cameron over for the ride, the consistent Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards-trained Pentire colt might have zero experience in Australia but he’s a big danger.
It’s hard to fluke winning a Group 1 anywhere by eight lengths, which is exactly what Xtravagant did last time out three weeks back in the NRM Sprint over 1400m.
He is out to become the first New Zealand-trained Australian Guineas winner in history, with the Murray Baker-trained We Can Say It Now the last Kiwi to start favourite in 2011 when she ran 14th to Shamrocker.
So can the visitor get the job done for the Australian Guineas punters or does the form guide and betting statistics show it’s better to back another hope such as Darren Weir’s flyer Mahuta ($9) or the Mick Price-trained Victoria Derby winner from the Spring Tarzino ($8.50)?
Below we’ve gone over the full Australian Guineas form guide to come up with the must know facts before you place a bet on the race through Ladbrokes.com.au!
2016 Australian Guineas Form Facts & Stats
- Last year’s Australian Guineas winner was the Gai Waterhouse-trained Wandjina who came off a Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes win at the track, jumped from barrier 9 (of 14) with Craig Newitt in the saddle and paid $7 for the win
- This year the CS Hayes Stakes was won on protest by the Michael Moroney-trained Tivaci who backs up in the Australian Guineas shooting for the double
- First-past-the-post in the CS Hayes but losing the win on protest was another Australian Guineas start on Saturday Palentino
- Gai Waterhouse (3-2-0-0) shoots for back-to-back wins with #10 River Wild ($21)
- The other former Australian Guineas winning trainers with a runner on the weekend are: Mick Price (9-2-0-0) with #2 Tarzino, #4 Ready For Victory and #16 Sailing By; and David Hayes (19-3-2-3) who saddles-up #7 Sovereign Nation and #15 Risque in partnership is Tom Dabernig
- Last year’s winning jockey Craig Newitt (7-2-0-0) is after another win in 2016 aboard #2 Tarzino ($8.50)
- The other previous Australian Guineas winning jockeys with a ride on Saturday are: Glen Boss (8-1-1-0) on #4 Ready For Victory, Brett Prebble (5-1-0-1) on #10 River Wild and Damien Oliver (18-2-3-2) on #13 Jameka
- There are four last start winners in the field this year with: #1 Mahuta (Group 2 Autumn Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 13/02/2016), #5 Xtravagant (Group 1 NRM Sprint, Terang NZ, 1400m, 13/02/2016), #8 Tivaci (Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes, 1400m, Flemington, 20/02/2016) and #15 Risque (Group 3 Kevin Hayes Stakes, 1200m, Caulfield, 13/02/2016)
- Barrier 9 has produced the past two Australian Guineas winners and belongs this year to #1 Mahuta ($9)
- The most successful Australian Guineas barriers producing six winners each (since 1983) are two and seven drawn this season by #14 Perfect Reflection ($9.50) and #16 Sailing By ($31) respectively
- The only Australian Guineas winner to jump from double digits in over 30 years is Mosheen (16 of 16) in 2012
- This year that rules out the widely drawn runners: #15 Risque (10), #6 Bon Aurum (11), #13 Jameka (12), #8 Tivaci (13), #11 Snoopy (14), #12 Tulsa (15) and #9 Palentino (16)
- There are four fillies taking on the boys in the field on Saturday with: #13 Jameka, #14 Perfect Reflection, #15 Risque and #16 Sailing By
- The last two fillies to win were Shamrocker (2011) and Mosheen (2012) and the only other two in the past 30 years before them being Miss Finland (2007) and Triscay (1991)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #14 Perfect Reflection (83%) followed by #1 Mahuta (75%) and #5 Xtravagant (63%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #14 Perfect Reflection (100%) followed by #1 Mahuta (88%), #15 Risque (86%) and #16 Sailing By (86%)
- Previous winners over the distance (1600m) are: #1 Mahuta (2-2-0-0), #15 Risque (2-2-0-0), #3 Vanbrugh (2-1-1-0), #2 Tarzino (2-1-0-0), #5 Xtravagant (2-1-0-0), #7 Sovereign Nation (2-1-0-0) and #14 Perfect Reflection (1-1-0-0)
- Those with the best winning form at the Flemington track are: #13 Jameka (4-2-0-0), #1 Mahuta (1-1-0-0), #2 Tarzino (1-1-0-0), #4 Ready For Victory (4-1-0-1), #6 Bon Aurum (3-1-0-1), #8 Tivaci (3-1-1-0) and #9 Palentino (2-1-1-0)
- Favourites have a poor recent record in the Australian Guineas with the last to salute for the punters being Light Fantastic (2008) giving #5 Xtravagant ($3.40) a hoodoo to overcome this weekend
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Australian Guineas 2016 betting tips to be published shortly.
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