One of the key support races on the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day line-up in Melbourne this weekend is The Vanity 2016, betting tips and the latest odds for the fillies’ feature detailed below.
There are nine three-year-old fillies in the mix for this season’s $150,000 Group 3 The Vanity (1400m), which runs as Flemington Race 5 at 2:47pm (local) on Saturday.
Four of the final acceptors are at single figures in the latest The Vanity odds at Ladbrokes.com.au with markets led by the firming favourite Perfect Reflection ($2.70 into $2.70).
Heading towards a run against the boys in next month’s $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m), the undefeated daughter of More Than Ready steps out for Darren Weir in her eastern state debut on Saturday.
All five of her previous runs were over in Perth, Perfect Reflection last seen extending her unbeaten career record to five from five with an historical win in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic (1800m) at Ascot in December.
The bookies are taking no chances with Perfect Reflection despite her having no experience outside of WA or over the 1400m, especially after she came up trumps with barrier one for jockey Ben Melham.
Second favourite in The Vanity betting paying $3.90 to end the run of Perfect Reflection is the returning Crown Oaks winner Jameka.
She jumps from gate six with Damien Oliver in the saddle, the Ciaron Maher-trained daughter of Myboycharlie last seen winning the Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) at the track in November.
That was her second win from three Flemington runs and she also has winning form over 1400m that she resumes over on Saturday after a solid Cranbourne trial from earlier in the month when fourth to Pasadena Girl over 800m.
Rounding out the hopes under $10 to take out The Vanity trophy this Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival are then Sandown Guineas third placed Not A Single Doubt filly Don’t Doubt Mamma ($6) and the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Sacred Eye ($7.50) in the outside barrier.
Of the value runners in the mix the best fancied are Michael Moroney’s daughter of Encosta De Lago Alaskan Rose ($10) in barrier three and the Team Hawkes-trained Euro Angel ($12) coming off a win on debut over 1200m at Randwick from Australia Day.
So can Perfect Reflection continue her perfect run or is there an upset The Vanity result on the Flemington card this weekend?
#4 Don’t Doubt Mamma ($6)
We’re tipping the upset and going for Adelaide-trained Don’t Doubt Mamma who was last seen running third to Mahuta in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m) in mid-November. That form has since been franked with the winner going on to take out the Gold Coast MM 3YO Guineas and Autumn Stakes, something this filly is out to also do. She is undefeated over Saturday’s distance, won her last start at the track in a Listed feature on Melbourne Cup Day and ticks plenty of boxes.
#1 Jameka ($3.90)
Maher’s Crown Oaks winner will obviously improve on whatever she does here first-up, but she has winning form over the 1400m and is two-from-three at the track. In a small field class alone should see her put in a big fresh run off a promising trial before rising through the ranks and distance over her autumn.
#2 Perfect Reflection ($2.50)
Hard to knock the WA form of this smart filly who is now with Melbourne Cup winning trainer Weir, but she might just need the run interstate before she’s back to her best. She made history as the first filly to win the Kingston Town Classic last start, but is yet to run over 1400m or outside of Perth so be a little weary.
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