2016 Lightning Stakes Form Guide & Betting Preview

The next Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival Group 1 race lights up Flemington Racecourse this Saturday with the 2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes running down the straight, our exclusive form guide and betting preview for the sprint classic found below.


Race favourite Exosphere is out to break the recent drought of three-year-olds in Saturday’s 2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. Photo: Steve Hart.

Due to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:05pm (local), seven sprinters line-up in this season’s $750,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), five of which have a previous elite level win on the record.

Four in the classy line-up are at single-figures to add their name to the prestigious list of Lightning Stakes winners including the current $2.50 favourite through Ladbrokes.com.au Exosphere ($2.50).

The John O’Shea-trained three-year-old is the wrong age historically speaking for the win, but is at the right price statistically and has the inside run from barrier one with ace Sydney hoop James McDonald over in Melbourne for the ride.

He is followed closely in Black Caviar Lightning betting by the early market mover Chautauqua ($2.70 into $2.60) who races for the first time since his second in the Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m) at the track in the spring.

So will the first two in the Lightning Stakes odds run the quinella for the punters, or is there value tipping an upset from the likes of Chris Waller’s returning Darley Classic winning four-year-old Delectation ($8) or the Joe Pride-trained Terravista ($8.50) who was third in the same Emirates Stakes Day feature back in November?

Below we’ve done the hard work for our readers and have the must know Black Caviar Lightning Stakes form facts, historical and betting stats so you know who to back and who to sack on Saturday!

2016 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s winner was the Mick Price-trained Lankan Rupee (2015) who jumped form barrier six (of six) with Craig Newitt in the saddle first-up after a Darley Classic third the November before
  • Price is without a runner this year but Craig Newitt shoots for back-to-back wins aboard the roughie in the field #4 Va Pensiero ($71)
  • Along with Newitt (8-2-0-1) the only other previous Lightning Stakes winning jockey with a ride this weekend is Damien Oliver (16-5-3-0) on #2 Terravista ($8.50)
  • The previous winning Lightning Stakes trainers with a starter this year are: John Hawkes (11-1-1-1) who saddles-up #1 Chautauqua in partnership with sons Michael and Wayne and Peter Moody (12-3-3-1) with #7 Kinglike
  • Last year’s winning barrier (6) has produced a total of four winners (since 1983) and belongs this Saturday to #2 Terravista
  • The most successful Lightning Stakes barriers in that time producing five winners each are 2 and 5 drawn this year by #1 Chautauqua and #6 Japonisme respectively
  • The Darley Classic (formerly the Patinack Farm Classic) has produced three of the past six Lightning Stakes winners including Lankan Rupee (3rd in 2015)
  • The horses coming out of that race in the mix on Saturday are: Delectation (1st), Chautauqua (2nd), Terravista (3rd)
  • #3 Delectation is out to complete the Darley Classic – Lighting Stakes double for the first time since Black Caviar (2011)
  • Favourites have won three of the past five editions of the race with Black Caviar saluting for the punters in all three of her wins from 2011-13
  • This year the two top fancies in betting are #5 Exosphere ($2.50) and #1 Chautauqua ($2.60)
  • The only Lightning Stakes winner to jump at longer than $5.50 since 2004 was Scenic Blast ($19 in 2009); only Exosphere and Chautauqua fit the bill this year
  • Four and five-year-olds have dominated the race since 2007 winning all but one edition; the runners in this age group on Saturday are Chautauqua (5YO), Va Pensiero (5YO) and Delectation (4YO)
  • Despite an earlier dominant record of three-year-olds in the race none have beaten home their older rivals since Fastnet Rock (2005); the 3YOs out to break the drought this year are Exosphere, Japonisme and Kinglike
  • The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #5 Exosphere (63%) followed by #2 Terravista (53%)
  • The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #1 Chautauqua (89%) followed by #6 Japonisme (80%)
  • The runners with the best Flemington track record are: #1 Chautauqua (6-3-3-0) and #2 Terravista (3-1-0-2)
  • Previous winners over the short sprint distance (1000m) are #1 Chautauqua (1-1-0-0), #2 Terravista (1-1-0-0), #4 Va Pensiero (3-1-1-0) and #5 Exosphere (1-1-0-0)

Stay tuned for our insider Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 2016 betting tips to be published later in the week.

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2016 Lightning Stakes Form Guide


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