The headline race at Ascot Racecourse this weekend in WA is the 2015 Railway Stakes, a detailed form guide and betting analysis for the Perth Summer Racing Carnival classic found below.
Due to jump as Ascot Race 8 at 4:35pm (WA time), this year’s $1 million Group 1 James Boag’s Premium Railway Stakes (1600m) features a field of 15, half the capacity 30 runners the race can accommodate.
It is a tight Railway Stakes betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on the mile classic on Saturday, with three horses battling for favouritism.
Current top fancy at $4.20 is the Grant Williams-trained dual Group 1 winning mare Delicacy who is second-up after a resuming third in the Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) from November 7.
The Al Maher four-year-old is followed closely in the Railway Stakes odds by Black Heart Bart ($5) and Real Love ($5) who are two last start winners jumping wide from barriers 11 and 13 respectively.
Vaughn Sigley’s flying Blackfriars five-year-old Black Heart Bart has won all three of his runs this time in including the Lee Steere Stakes that has produced the past two Railway Stakes winners.
Adam Durrant’s Perth Cup winning Desert King mare Real Love also comes off a win at the track having taken out the Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes (1400m) on October 31.
The only other single figure hope is early market mover Good Project ($8.50 into $7.50) for Sydney’s Chris Waller, the Not A Single Doubt four-year-old coming off a second over 1400m at Flemington from Melbourne Cup Day carrying 60kg – seven kilos more than his minimum weight this weekend.
That’s the markets, but what does the Railway Stakes form guide and betting statistics reveal?
2015 Railway Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Railway Stakes winner was the Grant Williams-trained mare Elite Belle who came off a Lee Steere Stakes fourth and carried 53.5kg to victory as a $5 shot from barrier 12 (of 16) with William Pike in the saddle
- Elite Belle (2014) was the third Railway Stakes winning mare in 10 years joining Covertly (2005) and Belle Bizarre (2006)
- This year there are six mares in the mix looking to go back-to-back again with #3 Delicacy, #4 Fuchsia Bandana, #5 Real Love, #6 Wink And A Nod, #7 Balmont Girl and #13 My Sister Lil
- Along with Grant Williams (10-1-0-0) who saddles-up both #3 Delicacy ($4.20) and #9 Battle Hero ($26) the other previous Railway Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Adam Durrant (8-1-0-0) with #5 Real Love, #14 Special Delivery and #15 Tower Of Lonhro; and Ross Price (18-2-0-2) with #13 My Sister Lil
- Along with William Pike (8-1-0-1) who shoots for back-to-back wins this year aboard #3 Delicacy the other previous Railway Stakes winning jockeys with a ride this year are: Shaun O’Donnell (13-2-3-0) on #7 Balmont Girl and Craig Williams (3-1-0-0) on #10 Good Project
- The past two Railway Stakes winners came off a fourth in the Lee Steere Stakes with Luckygray (2013) and Elite Belle (2014)
- This year the Railway hopes coming out of the Lee Steere are: Black Heart Bart (1st), Delicacy (3rd), Wink And A Nod (4th), Fuchsia Bandana (5th) and Bass Strait (6th)
- Black Heart Bart is out to complete the Lee Steere Stakes – Railway Stakes double for the first time since Belle Bizarre (2006)
- Along with Black Heart Bart (Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes, 1400m, Ascot, 07/11/2015) the other last start winners in the race are: #5 Real Love (Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes, 1400m, Ascot, 31/10/2015), #11 Hazzabeel (Group 3 RJ Peters Stakes, 1500m, Ascot, 14/11/2015) and #14 Special Delivery (Hcp, 1500m, York, 08/11/2015)
- Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won every edition of the Railway Stakes since 1998; horses outside that age range this year are #2 Messene (7yo) and #15 Tower Of Lonhro (7yo)
- Barrier 12 has produced the past two Railway Stakes winners, is the most successful gate in recent history with a total of six winners (since 1983) and belongs this year to #10 Good Project ($7.50)
- The next most successful gate in that time with four winners is eight drawn this year by roughie shot #8 Bass Strait ($81)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #3 Delicacy (67%) followed by #11 Hazzabeel (60%) and #9 Battle Hero (60%)
- The best Place Rate of the field also belongs to #3 Delicacy (93%) followed by #9 Battle Hero (90%)
- The previous winners over the distance (1600m) are: #15 Tower Of Lonhro (7-4-2-1), #2 Messene (7-4-0-0), #10 Good Project (5-2-1-1), #12 Mr Utopia (3-2-1-0), #3 Delicacy (2-1-0-0), #4 Fuchsia Bandana (2-1-0-0), #11 Hazzabeel (2-1-0-0), #14 Special Delivery (2-1-0-0), #9 Battle Hero (2-1-1-0) and #8 Bass Strait (9-1-0-1)
- The horses with the best winning strike rate at the track (Ascot) are: #1 Black Heart Bart (17-6-5-2), #3 Delicacy (11-6-1-3), #5 Real Love (11-5-3-2), #7 Balmont Girl (24-5-6-3), #4 Fuchsia Bandana (10-4-1-1), #9 Battle Hero (5-2-2-0) and #13 My Sister Lil (9-2-1-2)
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