Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The Emirates Stakes 2015 lights up Flemington Racecourse as the last of the Melbourne Cup Carnival majors this Saturday, our insider betting tips for the classic mile handicap detailed below.
Due to jump as Flemington Race 7 at 4:20pm (AEST), this year’s edition of the $1 million Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) feature a final field of 16 hopefuls.
Unlike the Darley Classic where odds-on favourite Chautauqua dominates betting at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are running Best Tote or SP + 20% across the Flemington race card on Saturday, the Emirates Stakes odds are a much more open affair.
Five of the runners are at single-figures for the win out to become the third Emirates Stakes winner in as many years to salute at under $10 in betting.
Currently leading Emirates Stakes betting at $4.80 is the Godolphin import Bow Creek, the John O’Shea-trained Shamardal stallion coming off an Australian debut when runner-up to fellow Emirates hope Turn Me Loose in the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day.
He is followed closely in the markets by the German-trained raider Magic Artist ($5.50) who comes off a close fourth beaten only a length in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Derby Day with the aforementioned Crystal Mile winner Turn Me Loose ($7.50) the easing third pick out from $6 to make it three straight wins.
So will the first three in betting run the Emirates Stakes trifecta on the weekend or is there value further down the markets from the likes of the Darren Weir-trained Lucky Hussler ($8) carrying the 58kg top weight or Robert Smerdon’s Myer Classic winning mare at the track and distance last Saturday Politeness ($11)?
#11 Politeness ($11)
It has been a while between Emirates Stakes drinks for the mares with the last to beat home the boys being Divine Madonna (2006) nearly a decade ago. It is hard to knock an in-form mare however and Smerdon’s five-year-old daughter of Street Sense is certainly in flying form as she looks to break the drought for the female gallopers. She is three-from-three this time in including her three-quarter length Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m) victory at this track and distance last Saturday against her own kind. Hit-and-miss over her career, Politeness has found form at the right time and connections are striking while the iron is hot giving her a chance of another elite level success on a short back-up. She drops from 57kg to a light 53kg weight this weekend and is one of only three previous Flemington winners in the line-up.
#1 Lucky Hussler ($8)
Runner-up in this race 12 months ago, Husson six-year-old Lucky Hussler is looking to go one better this season on the back of a red hot lead-up. From three previous Flemington runs he boasts two seconds and is a dual Group 1 winner. The second of those was two back in the Toorak Handicap over the Caulfield mile before he was third past the post in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley. Flemington should suit better and even though he carries 58kg top weight on Saturday, that is a kilo less than his last start and was only carried to an Emirates win three years back by 12/1 shot Happy Trails. Plus trainer Darren Weir won the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday so the stable is also in flying form.
#3 Turn Me Loose ($7.50)
The past two Emirates Stakes winners came off a last start victory and that form fits Murray Baker’s visiting Kiwi galloper Turn Me Loose. Looking to also be the third straight four-year-old to take out the mile showdown, this Iffraaj stallion beat a number of the these same rivals home without too much worry over the Moonee Valley mile in the Crystal Mile, which last produced an Emirates Stakes winner in 2009 with All American (3rd). He drops two kilos in the weights to 56.5kg this weekend shooting for another spring win with Kerrin McEvoy jumping aboard after his first win in the race since Grand Delight (2001).
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