The marquee race at Flemington’s final Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting this weekend is the 2015 Emirates Stakes, a comprehensive form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.
Set to run as Flemington Race 7 at 4:20pm (AEST), a full field of 16 is engaged to face off in this year’s $1 million Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) that is open at Best Tote or SP + 20% before jump on Saturday only through Ladbrokes.com.au.
Just four in the field are currently under $10 for the win in the Emirates Stakes odds including two gallopers installed as the equal $5 favourites Magic Artist and Bow Creek drawn in barriers five and 10 respectively.
Last year’s Melbourne Cup winning trainer Andreas Wohler prepares German raider Magic Artist, a five-year-old Iffraaj stallion that debuted down under with a close fourth to the French visitor Gailo Chop in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m).
Beaten a length in the Derby Day feature at Flemington, Magic Artist drops back to a mile on Saturday that he has had four previous runs over for two seconds.
Bow Creek is now prepared by John O’Shea, the Godolphin-raced import also second-up in Australia after a second in the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) that last produced an Emirates Stakes winner in All American (3rd in 2009).
The other best fancied in Emirates Stakes betting include Murray Baker’s Crystal Mile winner Turn Me Loose ($6.50) shooting for his third win on the trot and the 58kg top weight Lucky Hussler ($8) for Melbourne Cup winning horseman Darren Weir.
That’s the story the bookmakers are telling but does this year’s Emirates Stakes form guide, betting history and statistics reveal value further down the markets from the likes of English galloper Arod ($10) coming off an 11th in the Cox Plate or Robert Smerdon’s Myer Classic winning mare from last weekend Politeness ($13)?
2015 Emirates Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Emirates Stakes winner was the Phillip Stokes-trained Hucklebuck ($9) who came off a Group 3 win at Flemington and jumped from barrier 5 (of 15) carrying 55.5kg with Dom Tourneur in the saddle
- While last year’s winning trainer is without a runner in 2015 jockey Dom Tourneur looks for back-to-back winning rides aboard #14 Rock Sturdy ($34); the last Emirates Stakes jockey to win successive races was Jim Cassidy on Bezeal Bay (1998) and Bonanova (1999)
- Along with Tourneur (1-1-0-0) the other previous Emirates Stakes winning jockeys with a runner on Saturday are: Kerrin McEvoy (9-1-0-0) on #3 Turn Me Loose, Damien Oliver (17-1-4-0) on #5 Disposition, Brett Prebble (10-1-2-0) on #7 Ecuador, Dwayne Dunn (8-1-1-0) on #8 Messene and Glyn Schofield (3-1-0-0) on #9 Moriarty
- The previous Emirates Stakes winning trainers with a runner this season are: Lee Freedman (15-1-2-0) who trains #4 Disposition in partnership with Anthony Freedman, John Hawkes (27-1-2-4) who trains #8 Messene in partnership with sons Michael and Wayne, Chris Waller (12-2-0-) with #9 Moriarty and #10 Amovatio, and David Hayes (19-3-3-0) who trains #16 He Or She with Tom Dabernig
- The past two Emirates Stakes champions were last-start winners and there are five last-start winners in the field this year with: #3 Turn Me Loose (Group 2 Crystal Mile, 1600m, Moonee Valley, 24/10/2015), #5 Disposition (Group 3 Chatham Stakes, 1400m, Flemington, 31/10/20915), #11 Politeness (Group 1 Myer Classic, 1600m, Flemington, 31/10/2015) and #15 Coronation Shallan (Group 3 Teiso Stakes, 1600m, Moonee Valley, 24/10/2015)
- Hucklebuck (2014) carried 55.5kg to victory last year a weight only #4 Bow Creek ($5) is allocated 12 months on
- Four-year-olds and five-year-olds have won four times each over the past 10 years and the only horses outside this age range running on the weekend are: #1 Lucky Hussler (6YO), #7 Ecuador (6YO), #8 Messene (7YO), #9 Moriarty (8YO) and #15 Coronation Shallan (6YO)
- Only one mare has won in the past 10 years – Divine Madonna (2006) – with three in the mix this year looking to be the next: #11 Politeness, #13 May’s Dream and #15 Coronation Shallan
- Four favourites have won in the past decade and the narrow favourites this year at an equal $5 currently are #4 Bow Creek and #6 Magic Artist
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #16 He Or She (57%) followed by #3 Turn Me Loose (50%) and #5 Disposition (50%)
- The best Place Rate of the field belongs to #5 Disposition (92%) followed by #3 Turn Me Loose (90%), #2 Arod (75%), #16 He Or She (71%) and #7 Ecuador (70%)
- The previous winners over the distance are: #8 Messene (7-4-0-0), #3 Turn Me Loose (3-3-0-0), #4 Bow Creek (12-3-2-1), #9 Moriarty (10-3-1-1), #7 Ecuador (6-2-3-0), #16 He Or She (2-2-0-), #15 Coronation Shallan (8-2-3-2), #12 Sons Of John (7-2-0-1), #10 Amovatio (7-3-1-1-), #1 Lucky Hussler (6-1-1-2), #2 Arod (4-1-1-2), #11 Politeness (3-1-0-0) and #14 Rock Sturdy (3-1-1-0)
- At the Flemington track the only three horses with winning form are: #5 Disposition (3-2-1-0), #10 Amovatio (3-2-0-1) and #11 Politeness (8-1-0-1)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Emirates Stakes 2015 betting tips to be published shortly.
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