One of the most in-depth and exciting line-up of fillies in recent years will take to the famous Flemington track on Thursday, November 4, for the 2015 Crown Oaks and below is a detailed form guide and betting analysis of the Melbourne Cup Carnival feature.
The headline race on a full nine-event card for Ladies Day, the $1 million Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) is due to jump as Flemington Race 8 at 4:40pm (AEST) and is available tomorrow at Best Tote or SP + 20% only at Ladbrokes.com.au!
A below-capacity Crown Oaks field is gathered this season with 12 three-year-old fillies in the mix.
What it lacks in numbers however if makes up for in class and currently there are three battling for top spot in the latest Crown Oaks odds.
Leading betting at $3.60 is the drifting favourite Sacred Eye who has run two firsts and two seconds from four starts to date.
She hasn’t raced since October 17 however when winning the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield.
Following closely at $3.80, in from $4.50, is the Crown Oaks market mover Jameka for Ciaron Maher who won the race 12 months ago with Set Square.
In flying form this campaign, the dual Group 2 winning daughter of Myboycharlie was last seen beating home the boys in the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate day.
Third in that race, Tarzino, franked the Vase form with a Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) win next time out, which bodes well for Jameka going up to the same class and distance also at Flemington at her next start.
Occupying the third line of Crown Oaks betting at $4 is the widely-drawn Ambience out in 10 for jockey James McDonald, the John O’Shea-trained Street Cry filly looking to complete the Wakeful Stakes – Crown Oaks double completed by three fillies since 2009.
That’s the story the bookies are telling but will the Crown Oaks form guide, betting history and statistics reveal value further down the markets from the likes of Peter Moody’s Group 1 winner Pasadena Girl ($10) or the John Thompson-trained Group 1 placegetter Honesta ($13)?
2015 Crown Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Crown Oaks winner was the Ciaron Maher-trained Set Square (2014) who came off a win in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield and jumped from barrier 2 (of 12) with Hugh Bowman in the saddle
- Maher returns shooting for back-to-back winners this year with #2 Jameka ($3.80) who won the Vase last time out, jumps from barrier 8 (of 12) and has Damien Oliver in the saddle
- Along with Maher (1-1-0-0) the other previous Crown Oaks winning trainers with a runner this year are: David Hayes (19-1-0-2) who trains #3 Sacred Eye in partnership with Tom Dabernig, Robert Smerdon (5-1-0-0) with #11 Dulverton and Clarry Conners (15-3-1-2) who shoots for his fourth win with #6 Dawnie Perfect
- Last year’s winning hoop Hugh Bowman also has a ride this year aboard #1 Pasadena Girl ($10) looking to ride back-to-back winners for the first time since R.S. Dye rode Slight Chance and Arborea in 1992 and 1993
- Along with Bowman (7-2-1-0) who shoots for a third Crown Oaks win the other previous winning hoops with a ride on Thursday are: three-time winning jockey Damien Oliver (17-3-0-1) on #2 Jameka, Craig Williams (9-2-0-1) on #5 Honesta and Jim Cassidy (15-5-2-1) on #6 Dawnie Perfect
- Last year’s winning barrier (2) has produced a total of four winners since 1983 making it the most successful Crown Oaks barrier in that time; this year the coveted gate belongs to #6 Dawnie Perfect ($14)
- The next best barriers with three winners each (since 1983) are 5, 7, 8 and 10 drawn this year by #1 Pasadena Girl (5), #10 Zarabeel (7), #2 Jameka (8) and #4 Ambience (10)
- #6 Dawnie Perfect is looking to complete the Ethereal Stakes – Crown Oaks double achieved by Set Square last year with a Wakeful fourth in between
- The past two Crown Oaks winners came off a win and this year there are three last start winners in the mix: #2 Jameka (Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase, 2040m, Moonee Valley, 24/10/2015), #3 Sacred Eye (Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, 2000m, Caulfield, 17/10/2015) and #4 Ambience (Group 2 Wakeful Stakes, 2000m, Flemington, 31/10/2015)
- The Wakeful Stakes has produced more Crown Oaks winners than any other race with 22 of the past 32 champions coming out of the Derby Day lead-up
- Along with the winner Ambience (1st) the other Wakeful Stakes graduates running in the Oaks on Thursday are: Muzkya (3rd), Dawnie Perfect (4th), Zarabeel (5th), Ritzy (8th), The Grey Flash (9th) and Princess Aria (12th)
- No filly has finished out of the Top 4 in the Wakeful and backed up to win the Oaks since Magical Miss (6th) in 2001
- The fillies with the equal highest Win Rate are #3 Sacred Eye (50%) and #4 Ambience (50% followed by #1 Pasadena Girl (38%)
- The same two fillies boast a 100% Place rate followed by #2 Jameka (88%)
- No filly in the field has been out over the distance (2500m) before
- At the Flemington track the fillies with a previous win are: #1 Pasadena Girl (2-2-0-0), #2 Jameka (2-1-0-0) and #4 Ambience (1-1-0-0)
To get behind your favourite fillies in the Crown Oaks 2015 at Best Tote or SP + 20% head to Ladbrokes.com.au who are also offering 50% extra if your FIRST BET in Races 1-5 at Flemington on Thursday at fixed odds wins!