Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The feature race on the opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting on the weekend at Flemington Racecourse is the Victoria Derby 2015, betting tips for the 2500m Group 1 for three-year-olds detailed below.
There is a full field facing off in this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) including the Mick Price-trained favourite Tarzino who is on the drift to win Flemington Race 7 at 3:50pm (AEST).
After opening as short as $2.40 for the win through Ladbrokes.com.au, who are the only Aussie bookie offering Best Tote or SP + 20% across the full Flemington card on Saturday, the son of Tavistock is out to $3.
Favourites have a poor record in recent years with just one Victoria Derby top fancy saluting in the past 10 years, but Tarzino ran a stellar third in the Moonee Valley Vase over 500m shorter last weekend and is set to eat up the metres seven days later at Flemington.
Money is coming in the Victoria Derby betting markets for a number of his longer priced rivals to score yet another upset including the $7.50 second pick Kia Ora Koutou with the race’s most successful barrier, one.
Lark Hill horseman Adam Durrant prepares the WA raider who was impressive over 2200m to win last start back home ahead of his maiden interstate trip where he is thrown in the deep end on the back of some strong runs.
The biggest Victoria Derby market mover though is Lizard Island smashed in from $12 to $8 to post his first Group 1 success after a Caulfield Guineas second over 1600m two back and his strong second to Crown Oaks favourite Sacred Eye in the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) on October 17.
They are the only single-figure fancies for the staying test so far, but money has also come for the John O’Shea-trained Shards ($19 into $12) who beat Tarzino home by one last weekend when runner-up in the Vase.
So can Tarzino break the favourites’ hoodoo in the Victoria Derby or is the value further down the markets once more from a roughie hope such as the well-priced Geelong Classic winner Extra Choice ($14) in the outside alley or improving Excellent Art colt Get The Picture ($11)?
#1 Lizard Island ($8)
Lizard Island is firming and rightfully so. He needs to handle the metres, but if he does that he could be hard to run down. Pat Hyland’s son of Sebring is in flying form this campaign running first or second in his latest four runs. He has winning form only up to a mile, but looked good when runner-up to Sacred Eye in the Group 3 Norman Robinson over 2000m. Drawn well in gate three giving jockey Blake Shinn the run of the Derby. The form is strong out of the Norman Robinson, the winning filly tipped to success in next week’s Crown Oaks over the 2500m, and it has produced two of the past four Derby winners.
#6 Extra Choice ($14)
The outside alley is obviously a concern, but there have been two Derby winners in the past nine years to jump out wide with Rebel Raider (15 in 2008) and Lion Tamer (14 in 2010), so it isn’t the be all and end all for this up-and-coming Redoute’s Choice gelding for Lindsay Park. He won over 2200m in the Geelong Classic by a good margin last start, the same race Preferment ran second in before his VRC Derby triumph 12 months ago. That form could stack up again in 2015 if Ben Melham gives Extra Choice the right run on Saturday.
#2 Shards ($12)
Tarzino certainly has claims as the favourite last weekend reeling in the ace late sectionals for his Vase third, but this O’Shea-trained galloper beat him home there and threatens to do so again on Saturday over the extra metres. Early money coming for the colt who has Cox Plate hoop Hugh Bowman in the saddle taking over for James McDonald, Bowman shooting for his fourth VRC Derby victory.
Whether you agree or disagree with our Victoria Derby 2015 betting tips make sure you have access to Best Tote or SP + 20% on all the Flemington races this weekend by opening your account at Ladbrokes.com.au today!
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