2015 Victoria Derby Form Guide & Betting Preview

October 29, 2015

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2015 Victoria Derby Form Guide & Betting Preview

The best three-year-old stayers of the season face off at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday in the Victoria Derby 2015, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the Melbourne Cup Carnival classic found below.

Extra Choice

Geelong Classic winner Extra Choice comes off the same race that produced last year’s Victoria Derby champion Preferment. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.

Running as Flemington Race 7 at 3:50pm (AEST) this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) features a full line-up of 16 starters plus an emergency runner needing an early withdrawal from the field to make the cut.

Current favourite in Victoria Derby betting at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on all Derby Day races this Saturday at Flemington, is the Mick Price-trained Tarzino ($2.50).

After a gun third in the Moonee Valley Vase last weekend the colt looks on track to enjoy a step up in distance on Saturday and break the recent hoodoo of favourites in the Victoria Derby with the only to win in the past decade being Efficient (2006).

The only other single figure chance in the latest Victoria Derby odds at $8 is the Adam Durrant-trained WA raider Kia Ora Koutou ($8).

Drawn a treat in barrier one, which has produced more Victoria Derby winners over the past 30 years than any other gate, the undefeated youngster makes his interstate and black-type debut on the back of a win over 2200m at Belmont on October 3.

Great value can be found across the rest of the Victoria Derby markets including from the well-backed Shards ($19 into $13) who beat Tarzino home when runner-up to the winning filly Jameka in the Vase last Saturday and Norman Robinson Stakes runner-up a fortnight ago Lizard Island ($11).

With plenty of upset Victoria Derby results in recent history including Fiveandahalfstar (40/1 in 2012) and Rebel Raider (100/1 in 2008) below are the must know facts and stats to uncover the value in 2015 before placing your bets at Ladbrokes.com.au.

2015 Victoria Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Victoria Derby winner was the Chris Waller-trained Preferment (2014) who came off a second in the Geelong Classic, and jumped from barrier 6 (of 16) with Damien Oliver aboard
  • Waller is without a runner this year but the previous Victoria Derby winning trainers with a starter are: David Hayes (16-2-2-1) who trains #6 Extra Choice ($12) and the emergency #17e Bullish Stock ($101) in partnership with Tom Dabernig, John Hawkes (17-1-2-4) who trains #10 Jadeer ($26) with sons Wayne & Michael, Peter Moody (3-1-0-1) with #11 Palace Tycoon ($51) and John Moloney (1-1-0-0) with #13 Pay Up Bro ($12)
  • Last year’s winning hoop Damien Oliver (22-5-3-3) has the best record of any jockey in the race and shoots for his sixth Victoria Derby win on Saturday aboard #8 Get The Picture ($11)
  • The other previous Victoria Derby winning jockeys with a ride this year are: Hugh Bowman (5-3-0-0) on #2 Shards ($13), Jim Cassidy (15-2-0-0) on #12 Scadden’s Run ($61) and Craig Williams (12-1-1-0) on #14 Colonel Cluster ($26)
  • Last year’s winning barrier (6) has produced a total of three winners (since 1983) and on Saturday belongs to #16 Iron Boss ($51)
  • The most successful Victoria Derby barrier in that time with five winners is gate one with #3 Kia Ora Koutou ($8) in the historically favourable alley this weekend
  • Horses coming out of the Geelong Classic that produced last year’s winner this year are: Extra Choice (1st), Jadeer (2nd), Pay Up Bro (3rd), Colonel Cluster (7th) and Bullish Stock (8th)
  • There are three last start winners in the field with #3 Kia Ora Koutou (BM72+, 2200m, Belmont, 03/10/2015), #6 Extra Choice (Listed, Geelong Classic, 2200m, Geelong, 21/10/2015) and #11 Palace Tycoon (BM64, 2200m, Seymour, 18/10/2015)
  • Polanski (2013) was the last Victoria Derby winner to come off a win having taken out the Norman Robinson Stakes in the lead-up
  • Only one favourite has taken out the race in the past 10 years and this year #7 Tarzino ($2.50) is out to break the hoodoo
  • The undefeated #3 Kia Ora Koutou (100%) boasts the best Win Rate of the field followed by #6 Extra Choice (43%) and #7 Tarzino (40%)
  • A perfect Place Rate then also belongs to #3 Kia Ora Koutou (100%) followed by #1 Lizard Island (88%), #7 Tarzino (80%), #8 Get The Picture (80%) and #9 Etymology (80%)
  • There are no previous winners over the distance (2500m)
  • The only previous winner at the Flemington track is #4 Ayers Rock (5-1-0-0)
  • #1 Lizard Island ($11) hasn’t won at Flemington but has run second at his two previous runs at the track ahead of Saturday

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our exclusive Victoria Derby 2015 betting tips to be published shortly.

In the meantime make sure you’re ready to lock in Best Tote or SP + 20% on the Victoria Derby and all Flemington support races on Saturday by opening an account with Ladbrokes.com.au who will match your first deposit up to $700 when you quote the code SPRINGBONUS!

2015 Victoria Derby Form Guide

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