The opening of four Group 1 Victoria Derby Day highlights on the Flemington race card this Saturday has the three-year-old sprinters facing off in the Coolmore Stud Stakes 2015, a detailed form guide and betting analysis for which is found below.
Due to jump as Flemington Race 4 at 1:40pm (AEST), this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) features 12 hopefuls led in betting by Exosphere.
John O’Shea’s Golden Rose winning Sydney raider sits top of the Coolmore Stud Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are running Best Tote or SP + 20% markets on the full Derby Day line-up, paying $1.40 for the win.
He is odds-on and firming, in from $1.50, and is set to get the run of the race down the famous Flemington straight from gate two with jockey James McDonald chasing his first win in the classic.
Three-from-three this time in, Lonhro colt Exosphere was last seen winning Randwick’s Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) and is looking to join the Chris Waller-trained duo of Zoustar (2013) and Brazen Beau (2014) in completing the Roman Consul – Coolmore Stud Stakes double.
None of Exosphere’s 11 rivals join him under $10 in the markets but the next best in betting for the upset are the stablemate Mogador ($11) in barrier seven with jockey Craig Williams after his second win following success on Show No Emotion (1997) and the flying Blue Sapphire Stakes winner Keen Array ($11).
That’s the story the bookies are telling but what does the Coolmore Stud Stakes form guide, betting history and recent statistics reveal about where the value in the markets at Ladbrokes.com.au might be?
2015 Coolmore Stud Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Coolmore Stud Stakes winner was the Chris Waller-trained Brazen Beau (7/1) who came off a Roman Consul Stakes win and jumped from a wide barrier 15 (of 16) draw with Joao Moreira in the saddle
- Waller also prepared Zoustar to win the Roman Consul Stakes – Coolmore Stakes double the previous year in 2013
- This year the Roman Consul Stakes winner looking to become the third on the trot to take out the Coolmore is #1 Exosphere ($1.40)
- Favourites have a gun record in the race with six saluting in the past 10 years with #1 Exosphere out to be the next in 2015
- Last year’s winning hoop is without a ride but the previous Coolmore Stud Stakes winning jockeys in the race this year are: Damien Oliver (18-3-3-4) on #2 Ready For Victory ($26) and Craig Williams (10-1-0-2) on #10 Mogador ($11)
- Dual defending trainer Chris Waller (6-2-1-1) is back for a third win this weekend with #5 Japonisme ($21) and #6 Counterattack ($16)
- The other previous Coolmore Stud Stakes winning trainer with a runner this season is Danny O’Brien (4-2-0-1) with the race roughie #12 Ragazzo Del Corsa ($126)
- Last year’s winning barrier was 15 but with only 12 runners in the race this year no horse can go back-to-back from the gate
- Since 1983 the most successful Coolmore Stud Stakes barriers with five winners each are 8 and 9 drawn this year by triple figure outsider #9 Black Vanquish ($126) and #8 Sebring Sun ($21) respectively
- There are three last start winners in the field this year with: #1 Exosphere (Group 2, Roman Consul Stakes, 1200m, Randwick, 03/10/2015), #4 Keen Array (Listed, Blue Sapphire Stakes, 1200m, Caulfield, 14/10/2015) and #6 Counterattack (Listed, Brian Crowley Stakes, 1200m, Randwick, 17/10/2015)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #3 Super One (80%) followed by #1 Exosphere (71%) and 11 Hellbent (67%)
- #3 Super One (100%) also has the best Place Rate equal with #11 Hellbent ($18) who is also yet to finish out of the money and then #10 Mogador (80%) and #5 Japonisme (78%)
- Over the distance (1200m) those with the best record are: #1 Exosphere (4-3-0-0), #3 Super One (3-3-0-0), #4 Keen Array (2-2-0-0), #6 Counterattack (4-2-0-0), #8 Sebring Sun (3-2-0-0) and #9 Black Vanquish (4-2-0-0)
- The previous winners at the track (Flemington) are: #2 Ready For Victory (2-1-0-1), #9 Black Vanquish (2-1-0-0) and #12 Ragazzo Del Corsa (3-1-0-0)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Coolmore Stud Stakes 2015 betting tips before race day.
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