Will Oaks Champ Set Square be the 2015 Caulfield Cup Winner?

Mares have won just one Caulfield Cup in the past 13 years but this weekend in Melbourne last year’s Crown Oaks winner Set Square is well liked to break the hoodoo of female gallopers in the staying classic.

Set Square

Last year’s Crown Oaks winner Set Square is after her first race since in Saturday’s 2015 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Photo: Sarah Ebbett.

Since mighty New Zealand-trained mare Ethereal won the 2011 Caulfield Cup the only other mare to win the world’s richest mile and a half handicap was Southern Speed (2011).

This Saturday the capacity field for the $3 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m), due to jump as Race 9 at 5:40pm (AEST), features five mares looking to be the next with the only one under single figures for the win being the Ciaron Maher-trained Set Square.

The Reset four-year-old pays $9.50 in the latest Caulfield Cup betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on Saturday for every Caulfield Cup Day race, following only the ATC Derby winner Mongolian Khan ($4.80) and runner-up Hauraki ($9) from the autumn.

She is drawn wide in barrier 16, into 12 with the four emergencies coming out of a capacity 18-starter Caulfield Cup field, with Kerrin McEvoy seeking his second win in the feature following his success aboard the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained All The Good (2008).

As a three-year-old Set Square won the Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) at Flemington during last November’s Melbourne Cup Carnival and in the Caulfield Cup she is out to break a year long drought having failed to win again since.

Her lead-up run third-up however was very good when crossing under a length away third to Preferment and Royal Descent in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 4, the traditional lead-up to the Caulfield Cup.

So can Set Square salute for the ladies in this year’s Caulfield Cup or is she set for another top three finish at best in a talented line-up of spring stayers?

Caulfield Cup Horse Form: #17 Set Square

Barrier: 16 (into 12 with emergencies out)

Weight: 51kg

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Owner/s: Mr K King, Ken King Thoroughbreds, Mr G Raymond, Mr T R Lyndon, Mr C C Cansfield, Mr S D Wallace, Mr K Watson, Red Jacket Racing, Mr M J Demarte, Mrs D V Demarte, Mr D J Roberts, Mr K Minhas, Mr B T Roche, Mr D A Andrews, Ken King Combo No 37, Mr M J Grant, Mr G Darling, Mrs S Y Sang, Mr G N Peters, Mr S R Britten

Age: 4YO

Gender: Mare

Breeding: by Reset from Dynastar

Career: 10-3-2-3

Win: 30%

Place: 80%

Last 6: 30×253

Prize Money: $829,000

Track: 2-1-1-0

Distance: 0-0-0-0

Current 2015 Caulfield Cup Odds: $9.50

Why Set Square Can Win for the Mares in the 2015 Caulfield Cup

  • A double-digit gate over 2400m in a big field could be favourable with four of the past six Caulfield Cup winners jumping from gate 10 or wider
  • Carries only 51kg meeting the top weights seven kilos better off despite being a Group 1 winner
  • Jockey Kerrin McEvoy boasts a previous win in the race aboard All The Good (2008) and has form aboard Set Square this campaign
  • The last four-year-old Caulfield Cup winner was a mare – Southern Speed (2011) only four years ago
  • Comes off a brave Turnbull Stakes third, a race that has produced four of the past six Caulfield Cup winners
  • The last was Fawkner (2013) who like Set Square ran third in the Turnbull before his Cup win two years ago
  • Is a Group 1 winner over 2500m in Melbourne
  • Has decent form at Caulfield with a win and second from two runs as one of only three in the field with winning form at the track

Why Set Square Won’t Break the Mares-Hoodoo in the Caulfield Cup 2015

  • If she comes into barrier 12 she’ll need luck historically with no winner jumping from that gate in over 30 years
  • While 51kg looks favourable, no Caulfield Cup winner has won with that weight since Imposera (1988)
  • Mares have a poor Caulfield Cup record with the past two females to take it out being Southern Speed (2011) and Ethereal (2001)
  • Shapes up as a better Place bet with an 80% Place Rate but only a 30% winning strike rate
  • Hasn’t won a race since the Crown Oaks in November last year

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