A classy field of three-year-old fillies face off in one of the key support races on Melbourne’s Caulfield Guineas Day program this Saturday in the Thousand Guineas 2015, betting tips for which are detailed below.
There are 11 runners in this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) line-up, the set weights clash running as Caulfield Race 8 at 5:05pm (AEST).
Current Thousand Guineas odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, where punters can access Best Tote or SP + 20% markets on all 10 Caulfield races on the program, feature five single figure hopes led by the Peter Moody-trained Pasadena Girl ($4.40).
Jumping from gate seven with Hugh Bowman in the saddle shooting for back-to-back wins following his success aboard Amicus last year, Moody’s daughter of Savabeel is after her first win since success over the Randwick mile back in April’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes.
It is an open Thousand Guineas betting affair this Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival and the next best fancied are $5 second elects Stay With Me for David Hayes & Tom Dabernig and the flying Mick Price-trained Edward Manifold Stakes winner Badawiya, and Miss Gunpowder ($6) coming off the Thousand Guineas Prelude victory this season.
So can Moody’s filly become a dual Group 1 winner over the mile or is the value in an upset Thousand Guineas result this weekend from the likes of Ciaron Maher’s Prelude third placegetter Jameka ($8.50) or even Alaskan Rose ($31) who has won two of her three career starts to date?
#2 Miss Gunpowder ($6)
Tipping the form coming out of the Group 2 Prelude to stand-up again this spring with this Phillip Stokes-trained Adelaide raider who won the traditional lead-up by a length on September 26 after a win back home in Morphettville as the odds-on fancy. Craig Williams, who won the Thousand Guineas aboard Miss Finland (2006), retains the ride here with Miss Gunpowder looking to become the second filly in as many years to come out of the Prelude. Favourites have won two of the past four editions, but there is value here in a filly with enough speed to overcome the outside alley (11) that last produced a winner in 2004 (Alinghi). She’s versatile and still has options from the gate so could be too hard to run down if she gets up front.
#6 Badawiya ($5)
Lots of money rolling in for Price’s Al Maher filly who shoots for her third win on the trot and the second over the mile. She’s one of just two in this field along with the favourite proven over the distance after her brilliant two length Flemington win in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes only last Sunday. She’s on the short turnaround here though but is fit, firing and The Edward Manifold has produced four Thousand Guineas winners in the past 10 years. She’s also got a nice turn of foot and will be the fast-finisher to hold out giving the others a challenge.
#1 Pasadena Girl ($4.40)
The bookies’ tip to win, Moody’s filly is the other proven miler with Group 1 winning form from last season. She is three runs in this weekend and set to peak having been targeting this race for a while. Bowman replaces Vlad Duric in the saddle after her fifth in the Prelude riding her for the first time since they combined for the Champagne Stakes win in Sydney during the autumn. Deserving favourite and needs to be respected.
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