Thousand Guineas 2015 Form Guide & Betting Preview

A class line-up of three-year-old fillies will stretch out to a mile this weekend at Caulfield Guineas Day facing off in the 2015 Thousand Guineas, a form guide analysis and betting preview for which can be found below.

Pasadena Girl

Pasadena Girl is early favourite to win Saturday’s 2015 Thousand Guineas over the mile at Caulfield Racecourse. Photo: Steve Hart.

There are 11 hopefuls making up the field for this Saturday’s $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m), the set weights classic running as Caulfield Race 8 at 5:05pm (AEST) on the 10-race program.

Leading the latest Thousand Guineas odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are offing a juicy Best Tote or SP + 20% on every single Caulfield Guineas Day race this Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, is the Peter Moody-trained Pasadena Girl ($4.40).

Jumping from barrier seven with Hugh Bowman aboard, the Savabeel filly shoots for her first win since becoming an elite level winner in Sydney back on April 18 with a victory in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) over the mile that she gets back up to this weekend.

Hot on Pasadena Girl’s heels in Thousand Guineas betting at $4.60 is Dwayne Dunn’s mount in barrier four, the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Stay With Me who beat home Saturday’s top fancy two back in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley before her sixth in the Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) last time out on September 26.

So will the top two in the markets prove the ones to beat or does the Thousand Guineas form guide, betting history and statistics reveal value further down the odds from the likes of the Thousand Guineas Prelude winner Miss Gunpowder ($6), in-form Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes champion Badawiya ($6) or the Ciaron Maher-trained local daughter of Myboycharlie Jameka ($9)?

2015 Thousand Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Thousand Guineas winner was the Chris Waller-trained Amicus (2014) who came off a Thousand Guineas Prelude second, jumped form barrier 9 (of 10) and had Hugh Bowman in the saddle
  • Waller is without a runner in 2015 but the other former Thousand Guineas winning trainers with a hope on Saturday are Mick Price (3-1-1-0) with #6 Badawiya ($6) and David Hayes (25-2-3-1) who trains #7 Stay With Me ($4.60) in partnership with his nephew Tom Dabernig
  • Last year’s winning hoop Hugh Bowman (6-1-0-1) shoots for back-to-back wins with #1 Pasadena Girl ($4.40F)
  • The other former Thousand Guineas winning jockeys with a ride in 2015 are: Steven Arnold (10-2-0-1) on #9 Alaskan Rose ($21), Craig Williams (9-1-0-1) on #2 Miss Gunpowder ($6) and Kerrin McEvoy (7-1-0-1) on #10 Super Cash ($15)
  • #1 Pasadena Girl is looking to become the sixth Thousand Guineas favourite to win in the past 10 years and the first since Guelph (2013)
  • There are three last start winners in the line-up with #2 Miss Gunpowder (Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude, 1400m, Caulfield, 26/09/2015), #5 Take Pride (Group 3 Champagne Stakes, 1200m, Moonee Valley, 25/09/2015) and #6 Badawiya (Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes, 1600m, Flemington, 04/10/2015)
  • The Thousand Guineas Prelude has produced two Thousand Guineas winners since 2009 with the last to complete the double being Irish Lights (2009)
  • This year #2 Miss Gunpowder ($6) is out to become the next Thousand Guineas Prelude – Thousand Guineas double winner
  • Also coming out of this year’s Prelude are: #8 Payroll (2nd), #4 Jameka (3rd), #10 Super Cash (4th), #1 Pasadena Girl (5th), #7 Stay With Me (6th), #9 Alaskan Rose (8th), #3 Sagaronne (9th) and #11 Don’t Doubt Marley (10th)
  • The Edward Manifold Stakes has produced nine Thousand Guineas winners in the past 20 years most recently Commanding Jewel (3rd in 2011)
  • Last year’s winning barrier (9) has produced three Thousand Guineas winners (since 1983) and belongs on Saturday to #4 Jameka ($9)
  • The most successful Thousand Guineas barrier in that time producing five winners is five that #5 Take Pride ($26) jumps from this weekend
  • The highest Win Rate belongs to #2 Miss Gunpowder (80%) followed by #9 Alaskan Rose (67%), #1 Pasadena Girl (50%) and #6 Badawiya (50%)
  • The best Place Rate belongs to #2 Miss Gunpowder (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money followed by #4 Jameka (83%), #6 Badawiya (83%) and #10 Super Cash (75%)
  • The only two previous winners over the distance (1600m) are #1 Pasadena Girl (1-1-0-0) and #6 Badawiya (1-1-0-0)
  • Previous Caulfield winners in the mix are #2 Miss Gunpowder (2-1-0-1) and #9 Alaskan Rose (2-1-0-0), while #8 Payroll ($19) has run twice from two runs at the track

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our exclusive Thousand Guineas 2015 betting tips to be published shortly.

Before then check out the full form guide below then head to Ladbrokes.com.au to open an account quoting the code SPRINGBONUS to enjoy up to $700 in bonus bets for a short time only!

2015 Thousand Guineas Form Guide

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