One of the four Group 1 Melbourne races on the Caulfield Guineas Day program this Saturday is the Toorak Handicap 2015 for the milers, a detailed form guide preview and betting analysis for which can be found below.
Running as Caulfield Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEST), this year’s $400,000 Group 1 David Jones NBCF Toorak Handicap (1600m) originally drew a full field of 18, but there are 17 left in the mix after the early scratching of the Chris Waller-trained Amicus (17).
Leading the current Toorak Handicap odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, where punters can win more with Best Tote or SP + 20% offered on all Caulfield races this Saturday, is the early market mover Disposition ($5.50 into $4.80).
A four-time winner back over in WA and runner-up to Moriarty in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic (1800m) in Perth as well, he is now trained by Lee & Anthony Freedman and has had four Melbourne runs leading into the Toorak including his second to Stratum Star in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on September 26.
In an open top half of the Toorak Handicap betting markets there are three other single figure hopes including stalemates Lucky Hussler ($5.50) and Stratum Star ($6.50) drawn ideally in barriers four and two respectively and representing last year’s winning trainer Darren Weir.
See below for a complete Toorak Handicap form guide, betting history and statistics to reveal where the value is at in the markets for this spring’s showdown and whether it is worth getting behind a longer priced chance for the upset such as the Chris Waller-trained Strawberry Boy ($13) who has a gun record over the mile (6-4-0-1).
2015 Toorak Handicap Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Toorak Handicap winner was the Darren Weir-trained Trust In Gust (2014) who came off a win in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, jumped from barrier 11 (of 15) and carried 56.5kg to victory with Brad Rawiller in the saddle
- This year Weir (2-1-0-0) has two chances to go back-to-back for the first time since Brisbane’s Robert Heathcote (Solzhenitsyn 2012-13) with #1 Lucky Hussler ($5.50) and #2 Stratum Star ($6.50) who carry the top weights with 58kg and 57kg respectively.
- The other form Toorak Handicap winning trainers with a 2015 runner are: Robert Heathcote (3-2-0-0) with #12 Hopfgarten ($18), Mick Price (11-2-1-0) with #18 Moonovermanhattan ($51) and Lee Freedman (19-2-2-1) who trains #7 Disposition ($4.80) in partnership with Anthony Freedman
- Brad Rawiller is without a ride this year but the former Toorak Handicap winning jockeys in the mix this spring are: Glen Boss (12-2-0-2) on #1 Lucky Hussler, Craig Williams (9-1-1-2) on #2 Stratum Star, Craig Newitt (9-1-0-0) on #10 Flamingo Star ($17), Luke Currie (4-1-0-0) on #16 Akavoroun ($20) and Jim Cassidy (11-4-2-0) on #4 Strawberry Boy ($13)
- Last year’s winning barrier (11) has produced four Toorak Handicap winners (since 1983) and belongs on Saturday to #15 Abidewithme ($13)
- The most successful Toorak Handicap barrier in that time producing five winners is gate three that #6 Puccini ($71) jumps from this spring
- Trust In A Gust came off a Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes win becoming the fourth Toorak Handicap winner out of that lead-up since 2007 and the third on the trot
- This year stablemate #2 Stratum Star is after the same double for the same trainer (Weir)
- Also coming out of this year’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes are #7 Disposition (2nd), #4 Strawberry Boy (4th), #1 Lucky Hussler (6th), #15 Abidewithme (8th), #3 Leebaz (9th) and #12 Hopfgarten (12th)
- Along with #2 Stratum Star (Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 26/09/2015) the only other last start winner in the field is #8 Kenjorwood (Hcp, 1700m, Caulfield, 26/09/2015)
- This year’s favourite is #7 Disposition ($4.80) and Toorak Handicap favourites have won four times in the past 10 years including the past two editions with Solzhenitsyn (2013) and Trust In a Gust (2014)
- Three of the past Toorak Handicap winners have carried 58kg to victory – a weight allocated to #1 Lucky Hussler this year
- Four-year-olds have won six of the past 10 editions and this year the 4YOs in the mix are: #2 Stratum Star, #7 Disposition, #11 Hi World and #18 Moonovermanhattan
- Three mares have won since 2007 most recently More Joyous (2010) with just two left in contention this year with #13 Noble Protector and #15 Abidewithme
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #7 Disposition (50%) followed by #11 Hi World (40%) and #16 Akavoroun (38%)
- The best Place Rate also belongs to #7 Disposition (90%) followed by #13 Noble Protector (73%) and #2 Stratum Star (72%)
- The horses with the best winning strike rate over the distance (1600m) are: #14 Jacquinot Bay (12-6-3-0), #4 Strawberry Boy (6-4-0-1), #13 Noble Protector (9-4-2-1), #17 Rhythm To Spare (9-4-1-1), #3 Leebaz (6-3-1-0), #6 Puccini (12-4-1-2), #12 Hopfgarten (9-3-2-0), #8 Kenjorwood (6-2-3-0) and #11 Hi World (4-2-0-0)
- At the track (Caulfield) the horses with the best form are: #8 Kenjorwood (3-2-0-0), #1 Lucky Hussler (3-1-1-0), #2 Stratum Star (6-2-0-1) and #14 Jacquinot Bay (6-0-3-0) who hasn’t won here but has three seconds from six starts
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Toorak Handicap 2015 tips up shortly.
Before then ensure you’ve got an account open and ready to go online at Ladbrokes.com.au – home of the juicy $700 first time depositor’s bonus bet when you quote the code SPRINGBONUS this season!