The Stradbroke Handicap 2015 takes centre stage in Brisbane on Saturday and below is a detailed form guide preview and betting analysis for Queensland’s richest race.
Set to run as Doomben Race 8 at 3:37pm (AEST) this year’s $2 million Group 1 AAMI Stradbroke Handicap (1350m) drew an above capacity field with the race favourite Lumosty installed as the first emergency.
Robert Smerdon’s flying young filly however has now gained a run in the starting 16 for Saturday after the scratching of the Robbie Laing-trained Lord Of The Sky who suffered a cut on the bulb of his off front heel.
The withdrawal has seen the Stradbroke Handicap odds on Lumosty firm right in from $7 to $4.60 to win her third straight after a runaway effort in the Listed The Straight Six (1200m) at Flemington last time out.
She’s got the 50.5kg light weight as well, last carried to victory in a Stradbroke by Sincero (2011).
The main dangers in the latest Stradbroke Handicap betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au, who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on all three Brisbane Group 1s on Saturday, are Peter & Paul Snowden’s recent BRC Sprint winner Charlie Boy ($7.50) and the Perth raider Black Heart Bart ($9).
That’s the story being told by the bookies but what does the Stradbroke Handicap form guide, history and betting statistics reveal about who to back and who to sack in the classic this Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival?
2015 Stradbroke Handicap Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Stradbroke Handicap winner was the Natalie McCall-trained River Lad who came off a win in the BRC Sprint and jumped form barrier 15 (of 18) with Damien Oliver in the saddle
- This year’s BRC Sprint winner #8 Charlie Boy ($7.50) shoots for the same double but has had an extra run when second last time out to Boban in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1350m) on May 23
- The Doomben 10,000 last produced a Stradbroke Handicap winner with Mid Summer Music (9th in 2012)
- Last year’s winning barrier (15) is drawn this year by the fourth emergency #20e Riva De Lago ($101) but will belong to #11 Black Heart Bart (17) if the remaining emergencies (outside of Lumosty) fail to gain a run
- McCall is without a chance at back-to-back wins and the only previous Stradbroke Handicap winning trainer with a 2015 runner John O’Shea (1-1-0-0) with #5 Generalife ($10) and #9 Knoydart ($10); O’Shea won with Private Steer (2003)
- Former Stradroke Handicap winning jockeys with a ride this weekend are: Craig Williams (5-1-0-1) on #8 Charlie Boy, Craig Newitt (7-1-0-0) on #15 Fast ‘N’ Rocking ($41) and Glen Boss (18-1-0-2) on #16 Delectation ($10)
- Favourites have won the Stradbroke Handicap just once in the past 10 years with Black Piranha for his first in 2009; this year #17 Lumosty ($4.60) will be out to break the hoodoo
- The past three Stradbroke winners were double figure roughies with River Lad ($30 in 2014), Linton ($25 in 2013) and Mid Summer Music ($30 in 2012)
- River Lad (BRC Sprint) and Linton (RA Lee Stakes) both came off wins before taking out the Stradbroke; the last start winners in the mix this year are: #1 Boban (Group 1 Doomben 10,000, 1350m, Doomben, 23/05/2015), #2 Hot Snitzel (Group 1 BTC Cup, 1200m, Doomben, 09/05/2015), #17 Lumosty (Listed The Straight Six, 1200, Flemington, 23/05/2015) and #20 Riva De Lago (Listed Glasshouse Handicap, 1300m, Sunshine Coast, 16/05/2015) who is far from assured a run
- #14 Srikandi (64%) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field followed by #10 Big Money (50%), #17 Lumosty (44%) and #11 Black Heart Bart (37%)
- The best Place Rate also belongs to #14 Srikandi (82%) followed by #17 Lumosty (78%), #11 Black Heart Bart (74%) and #10 Big Money (72%)
- At the Doomben track horses with the best winning form are: #1 Boban (4-2-1-0), #10 Big Money (4-2-0-0), #14 Srikandi (4-2-0-0), #2 Hot Snitzel (4-1-0-1), #8 Charlie Boy (2-1-1-0) and #12 Fontelina (3-1-0-0)
- Over the distance (1350m) horses with the most wins are: #1 Boban (14-7-2-0), #5 Generalife (17-6-2-4), #3 Sacred Star (10-4-1-0), #4 Smokin’ Joey (20-4-1-1), #11 Black Heart Bart (5-3-2-0) and #12 Fontelina (10-3-2-0) and #9 Knoydart (9-2-0-2)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Stradbroke Handicap 2015 betting tips.
In the meantime to back your own selections at the hottest odds visit Ladbrokes.com.au where new depositing players are rewarded with up to $500 in bonus bets this season with use of the code BETBONUS!