Three Group 1 races headline the Doomben action on Saturday including the Queensland Derby 2015, a detailed form guide and betting analysis for the three-year-olds’ classic found right here.
Set to run as the seventh on Stradbroke Handicap Day at 2:57pm (AEST), there are two notable early scratchings from this year’s $600,000 Group 1 Channel Seven Queensland Derby (2200m) field.
One of the top fancies in the original markets at Ladbrokes.com.au, the Darren Weir-trained Master Of Arts who will go to the paddock with a minor injury as well as Peter Moody’s Inauguration who will undergo surgery to remove a bone chip in his near fore knee both come out of the starting 16.
Their withdrawals pave the way for the first two emergencies to gain a run with Allzin and Harry now guaranteed a start with jockeys Hugh Bowman and Zac Purton coming aboard for the rides.
The updated Queensland Derby odds have the race favourite Werther ($2.30) as the market mover in barrier one with Jim Byrne booked to partner the in-form Kiwi visitor.
The Andrew Campbell-trained Tavistock gelding ran second to Delicacy in the Group 1 SA Derby (2500m) in Adelaide in his first run down under on May 9 before winning last weekend’s Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup (2200m) in open-age company at the same track and distance he returns to for the Derby.
The other top fancies in Queensland Derby betting are Moody’s remaining runner Upham who comes off a Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes win over 2020m from May 23 and the Chris Waller-trained High Chaparral gelding Sadler’s Lake who won the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate two back before a fifth to Upham – at $8 each to round out the single figure hopes in the mix.
So do the bookies have it right or does the Queensland Derby form guide, betting history and statistics hint at an upset result?
2015 Queensland Derby Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Queensland Derby winner was the Henry Dwyer-trained Sonntag who came off a 2000m win at Caulfield before taking out the Group 1 from barrier 5 (of 18) as a $12 chance with Chad Schofield in the saddle
- This year the last start winners in the mix are #1 Werther (Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup, 2200m, Doomben, 30/05/2015), #2 Upham (Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes, 2020m, Doomben 23/05/2015), #5 Magicool (HCP, 2000m, Flemington, 23/05/2015), #7 High Midnight (3YO BM73, 2000m, Randwick, 23/05/2015), #14 Rising Luck (3YO HCP, 2200m, Ipswich, 27/05/2015) and #16 Grappa Brandy (0-65 HCP, 1800m, Gold Coast, 30/05/2015)
- Dwyer is without a runner but the former Queensland Derby winning trainers with a chance this year are: Peter Moody (9-2-0-0) with #2 Upham ($8); Chris Waller (3-1-0-1) with #3 Sadler’s Lake ($8), #8 Quick Strike ($19) and #9 Redoutable Heart ($16); and Bart Cummings (9-2-0-2) who trainers #7 High Midnight ($21) in partnership with his grandson James Cummings
- The two former Queensland Derby winning jockeys with a chance on Saturday are Michael Rodd (11-2-1-2) on roughie shot #14 Rising Luck ($81) and Jim Byrne (8-1-0-2) on the favourite #1 Werther ($2.30)
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) is drawn by #19e Lucoblu ($101) but if the third emergency doesn’t get a run will belong to #12 Thermogenic ($19) and has produced a total of three Queensland Derby winners (since 1983)
- The most successful Queensland Derby barrier in that time with four winners is four drawn by #18e Harry ($21) who is now in with a run
- Favourites boast a gun recent record in the Derby with three of the past four saluting for the punters most recently Hawkspur (2013); this year’s favourite #1 Werther out to be the next
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #7 High Midnight (50%) and #18 Harry (50%) followed by #3 Sadler’s Lake (43%) and #2 Upham (38%)
- The best Place Rate belongs to #2 Upham (88%) followed by #4 Jumbo Prince (76%), #1 Werther (75%), #18 Harry (75%) and #6 Worthy Cause (73%)
- Previous winners at the Doomben track are: #1 Werther (1-1-0-0), #2 Upham (2-1-1-0), #3 Sadler’s Lake (2-1-0-0), #4 Jumbo Prince (7-1-2-1) and #6 Worthy Cause (5-1-2-0)
- Over the distance (2200m) hopes with a previous win are: #1 Werther (1-1-0-0) and #14 Rising Luck (1-1-0-0)
Our insider Queensland Derby 2015 betting odds will be published shortly so stay tuned.
In the meantime why not sign-up with Ladbrokes.com.au and enjoy access to Best Tote or SP + 20% on the three Group 1s in Doomben on Saturday!