This weekend in Brisbane the big race on the Doomben line-up is the Queensland Oaks 2015, a betting preview and form guide analysis on the three-year-old fillies’ classic found below.
There is a capacity field for this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Treasury Casino & Hotel Queensland Oaks (2200m), running as Doomben Race 7 at 3:57pm (AEST) and the current favourite through Ladbrokes.com.au is the Chris Waller-trained Winx ($2.70).
An in-form daughter of Street Cry from Sydney, where she ran second in the Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m) two back, Winx is also the Queensland Oaks betting market mover having been backed in from $2.90 to score back-to-back wins in the Sunshine State.
Last time out she secured her Queensland Oaks favouritism with a last-to-first Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas (1600m) win, but can she back up in tougher company over more distance on the tight Doomben circuit for the Group 1 win?
Only two of her rivals are also under $10 for the win with Gai Waterhouse’s classy Group 2 The Roses winner from last Saturday Bohemian Lily ($5 into $4.40) on the short back-up and drawn terribly in the second widest gate in the full field and the unknown hope Sebrina ($8) for Sydney’s Bjorn Baker.
So will the top three in betting run the Queensland Oaks trifecta or does the form guide, history and betting facts suggest an upset from a longer priced hope?
2015 Queensland Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Queensland Oaks winner was the Rex Lipp-trained Tinto who came off a second in The Roses and jumped from barrier 5 (of 18) with Timothy Bell in the saddle
- This year Lipp is without a runner but the former Queensland Oaks winning trainers with a chance on Saturday are: Gai Waterhouse (15-1-1-3) with #1 Bohemian Lily ($4.40), Kris Lees (6-1-0-1) with #5 Rustic Melody ($21), John Sargent (3-1-0-0) with #10 Swift Lady ($26) and #18e Champion Stage ($31), Bart Cummings (9-1-0-0) who prepares #15 Zarzali ($18) in partnership with grandson James, and Peter Moody (11-2-2-0) with #17e Imperial Lass ($51)
- Timothy Bell (4-1-0-0) shoots for back-to-back wins this year riding #12 Anaphora ($34) and the other former Queensland Oaks winning jockeys with a run on Saturday are: Hugh Bowman (6-1-0-0) on #2 Winx, Damian Browne (4-1-0-0) on #3 Platinum Witness, Kerrin McEvoy (9-1-0-1) on #4 Ballet Suite and James McDonald (2-1-0-0) on #5 Rustic Melody
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) is drawn on Saturday by #6 Col ‘N’ Lil ($34) but if the emergencies come out it will belong to #11 Sebrina (gate 8 into 5)
- Barrier five has produced four Queensland Oaks winners since 1983 but the most successful gate in that time with five winners is the inside alley drawn this year by the first emergency #17e Imperial Lass
- With another emergency #20e Mine With Lime (2) in gate two, it will be #14 No Tricks (3) coming into the inside alley if none of the spares get a call-up
- Favourites have won the Queensland Oaks three times in the past 10 years with Eskimo Queen (2007), Purple (2009) and most recently Scarlett Lady (2011); this year #2 Winx ($2.70) is out to be the next to salute for the punters
- The Roses has produced nine of the past 10 Queensland Oaks winners including Tinto last year with Scarlett Lady (2011) the last to complete the double
- This year the Oaks hopes coming out of last weekend’s The Roses are: Bohemian Lily (1st), Col ‘N’ Lil (2nd), Whatalovelyday (3rd), Yulong Baby (4th), Exquisite Jewel (5th), Platinum Witness (6th) and No Tricks (10th)
- Two fillies boast the equal highest Win Rate of 50% with #4 Ballet Suite ($10) and #18e Champion Stage followed by #2 Winx (45%), #1 Bohemain Lily (30%) and #10 Swift Lady (30%)
- The best Place Rate belongs to the third emergency #19e Shandaara (100%) followed by #9 Heavens Above (83%), #6 Col ‘N’ Lil (75%), #2 Winx (73%) and #5 Rustic Melody (73%)
- At the Doomben track those with the best record are #1 Bohemian Lily (2-1-1-0), #4 Ballet Suite (1-1-0-0) and #7 Whatalovelyday (8-1-0-1)
- While she is yet to win at Doomben #6 Col ‘N’ Lil has run second in two of her three runs at the Brisbane track
- No fillies in the Oaks field have a previous run over Saturday’s amended distance (2400m – 2200m)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Queensland Oaks 2015 tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime head over to Ladbrokes.com.au and open an account with the only bookie down under offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on the Queensland Oaks on Saturday!