National Stakes 2015 Tips & Selections

The opening The Goodwood Day race to get the Adelaide Autumn Racing Carnival action underway this weekend at Morphettville Racecourse is the 2015 National Stakes for the juveniles, betting tips for the sprint clash found below.

Strykum

Strykum is deserving favourite but can be beaten in Saturday’s 2015 National Stakes to kick off The Goodwood Day in SA. Photo: Jenny Barnes.

Due to jump as Race 1 at 11:55am (local), this year’s $115,000 Group 3 Seven News National Stakes (1200m) features a small field of 10 two-year-olds with the markets at Ladbrokes.com.au led by the rails-drawn Strykum ($2.50).

Ben Melham, who has an ace record on this day having won the Group 1 feature race the past two years, has the ride on Lee & Anthony Freedman’s Stryker filly who has just her third career start on Saturday.

Drawn in barrier one she shoots for her second Morphettville win on the trot having won the Listed Queen Adelaide Stakes (1050m) here on May 2 in her black-type debut.

At single figures for an upset National Stakes result to kick off the day include the likes of the John O’Shea-trained Badajoz ($3.50) in barrier two who ran fourth in Caulfield’s Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes (1200m) last start, the unraced Prince Of Brooklyn ($8), Counter Pulse ($8.50) in barrier four for jockey Clare Lindop and Atlanta Miss ($8.50) coming off a win in Adelaide’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic from early March.

So back or sack the favourite and if you’re going the upset who do you lock-in as the value bet?

1st

#8 Atlanta Miss ($8.50)

Going for the value bet and an upset from Patrick Payne’s Not A Single Doubt filly who beat home the boys at the track and distance last time out on March 9 to win the Magic Millions Classic. She did it narrowly that day on the back of a trip to Melbourne and Tasmania so was well-travelled at the time. She’s been freshened-up since and will have more in her legs now. Her lead-up trial on May 11 was disappointing when eighth and beaten seven lengths over 800m, which has blown out her price here. That was on a Heavy (8) track however and with firmer ground and more distance on race day she’ll improve.

2nd

#9 Strykum ($2.50)

Plenty to like about the deserving favourite who’ll get the run of the race from barrier one. Melham factor, is lightly raced and improving each time out as proven by her maiden win last time out at this track in black type company when defeating Thurlow by three quarters of a length. She goes up in distance for this and gets every chance to go back-to-back but if she doesn’t handle the rise in metres there are plenty ready to strike.

3rd

#2 Badajoz ($3.50)

Moving over to form coming out of Melbourne and saying Badajoz will run another nice place. The Godolphin-raced Commands colt won on debut at Hawkesbury in mid-April before his trip to Melbourne on May 2 in the Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes where he ran just over one and a half lengths away fourth. He’ll be better now he’s been over the 1200m and barrier two with Boss aboard is a big hope.

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