Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This weekend the big one in Adelaide is the 2015 South Australian Derby for the three-year-olds, betting tips on the Morphettville classic found below.
Running as Race 7 at 3:53pm (SA time), this autumn’s $500,000 Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m) field is at capacity and the betting odds at Ladbrokes.com.au are firmly led by the market mover Delicacy.
Grant Williams’ Perth-based filly has been smashed in from $4.80 to $2.80 to post another Group 1 win at the track after just last Saturday she triumphed in her interstate debut with a Schweppes Oaks win over 2000m.
The step up in distance for the Derby should be a non-issue for the flying daughter of Al Maher however who took out the WA Oaks – WATC Derby double over 2400m back home before her trip east.
The only other three-year-olds rated any kind of chance to beat the favourite this weekend are Nigel Blackiston’s Melbourne raider Manapine ($7) coming off a win back home over the same 2500m distance and the Nick Smart-trained local October Date ($8) who won the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes (2020m) at the track on Anzac Day.
So will the only three single figure hopes in the current SA Derby odds run the trifecta on Saturday afternoon or is there an upset on the cards from the likes of the visiting Kiwi Werther ($12) or the in-form All I Survey ($13) on the short back-up?
#16 Delicacy ($2.80)
She’s drawn wide and this is a tough back-up but the visiting Perth filly ticks too many boxes to tip against. She completed the WA Oaks – WATC Derby double over 2400m and so the step up from 2000m last weekend when she won the Schweppes Oaks last weekend to the 2500m won’t be a problem. Striking while the iron is hot and last Saturday wasn’t a gut buster so say she has enough to put these to bed. Was so dominant in her first run against the eastern state types and this will suit even more, which explains the firming price.
#3 Magicool ($12)
Once you get past the dominant and deserving favourite it does open up, despite the markets. Mark Kavanagh prepares this Fastnet Rock gelding who ran eighth in the Chairman’s last time out but can be forgiven that run. Gets nearly 500m more to close the gap this time and that looks like it will suit. Nothing went his way that day and think he’s a top chance to return to the kind of good form before that run that saw him win at Caulfield in early April on the back of some credible Group runs during the autumn carnival.
#8 All I Survey ($13)
Pat Carey-trained son of Domesday is in really nice form with a third in the Listed Galilee Series Final (2500m) at Flemington two back before a second at Caulfield last Saturday over 2000m. Has had an unusual lead-up but think the step back up in metres is going to suit on the back of that good effort. A promising type and only needs a bit of luck.
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