Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Today the headline race of the Warrnambool Racing Carnival takes place in country Victoria with the Warrnambool Cup 2015, betting tips for the handicap clash found below.
This year’s $200,000 Listed Sungold Milk Warrnambool Cup (2350m) runs as Race 8 at 3:20pm (AEST) this afternoon and originally attracted 15 final acceptors.
The field has been depleted of four runners already with the early scratching of: La Amistad (13), Verdant (4), Evenmoreaction (8) and So You Think (14).
With only 11 left in the mix the Warrnambool Cup odds at Ladbrokes.com.au on the top fancies have tightened noticeably and clear favourite at $3 is the Darren Weir-trained import Tall Ship.
Local Wangoon horseman Weir won the Cup 12 months ago with Akzar and is back with three hopes in 2015 including Brad Rawiller’s mount Tall Ship shooting for his fourth win on the trot.
The flying Sea The Stars four-year-old completed the Stawell Cup – Terang Cup double last time out and has the ideal form for the win today as well.
What can beat him?
Well the latest Warrnambool Cup betting markets have another four single figure fancies including Weir’s last start Pakenham Cup winner Tooleybuc Kid ($5) and the other stablemate to last year’s winning trainer Count Encosta who has been backed right in from $13 to $5.50.
So do the bookies have it right, will Weir run the Warrnambool Cup trifecta or is there value outside his trio from the likes of Terang Cup runner-up Tuscan Fire ($6.50) on the rails or the best fancied mare in the line-up Lucciola ($8) who ran third in the Pakenham Cup last time out?
#2 Tooleybuc Kid ($5)
With Weir’s awesome record here and his three dominating the markets for this afternoon it is hard to go past one of them for the win. For value though we’re steering away from the favourite and think, even with the hefty 59.5kg equal top weight, Tooleybuc Kid can get the bikkies. The Denon five-year-old has won his past two on the trot over 2000m, one at Caulfield and then the Pakenham Cup on April 26. Yet to win at this track and distance but has been racing so well and Mark Zahra jumps aboard.
#6 Tall Ship ($3)
Favourite is the one to beat and don’t think there will be much between the top two Weir stablemates in the finish. Drawn wide but 57kg, which is a drop of half a kilo from what he carried to victory in the Terang Cup over 2150m last start. Before that won another two on the trot, including the Stawell Cup, and he’s a winner at his only other start at this distance. Progressive four-year-old who has won five from 11 to date, only needs to overcome the gate to take it out for the punters.
#3 Tuscan Fire ($6.50)
Money is coming for Weir’s other runner (Count Encosta) but Tuscan Fire from the rails with Damien Oliver in the saddle looks an excellent place bet. The Dan O’Sullivan-trained eight-year-old is a veteran galloper having his 68th career start here but is racing as good as ever as proven on April 19 when runner-up, beaten just a nose by the favourite here (Tall Ship) in the Terang Cup. Carried 61kg that day and drops to 58kg so will be flying home as he shoots for his fifth win from f10 starts at this distance.
Whether you’re backing or sacking our 2015 Warrnambool Cup betting tips today make sure you place your bets online now at Ladbrokes.com.au where you’ll win more thanks to their Best Tote or SP + 20% markets on the race!
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