Aside from the gun three-year-olds facing off in the WATC Derby in Perth on the weekend Ascot’s other major race is the WA Sires’ Produce Stakes 2015 for the youngsters, betting tips for which are detailed below.
Originally a final field of 14 two-year-olds were set to face off in the $200,000 Group 3 W.A. Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) this year, but the early scratching of #6 Snatch ‘N’ Grab leaves 13 in the mix.
Leading the latest WA Sires’ Produce Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au for Race 6 at 3:40pm (WA time) at a firming $3 is Pushin’ Shapes.
Daniel Pearce’s Discount gelding has had just the two starts to date for a 1000m win in February and a third in the Listed Perth Stakes (1100m) on March 14.
He is up in class for this, and distance, but should be improving and will get a gun run from barrier four with jockey Jarrad Noske staying on.
The favourite is followed in the WA Sires’ Produce Stakes betting markets then by the likes of market mover Showy Chloe ($3.60) drawn wide in barrier 10 as the black filly prepares for her fourth career start and the Neville Parnham-trained Big Brown filly Light Up The Sky ($7) who ran second in Perth’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic in mid-February.
So will the first three in betting occupy the first three spots past the post come jump time on Saturday or is there value to be found tipping an upset from an outsider such as Jim Taylor’s last start winner at the track Idyllic Queen ($9) drawn the outside barrier or Perth Stakes runner-up Senso ($9)?
#11 Showy Chloe ($3.60)
Alfred Nobel filly coming off three third place finishes from her trio of career starts to date. All her runs have been this season at this track in black-type company. Two back she ran third in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes (1100m) beaten under a length and then last time out on March 28 she was third in the Group 2 Karrakatta Plate (1200m). There was nearly five lengths separating her and the winner that day but expect improvement now she’s been over the distance. She finished strongly and didn’t get a clear run throughout from her wide barrier 13 of 13 draw. She is wide again this weekend in 10 but that’s closer than last time and think she’ll settle better; with the smooth passage she’s the one to beat.
#3 Pushin’ Shapes ($3)
Deserving favourite has just his third career start and is drawn to win in barrier four. The Viscount gelding ran third in the Perth Stakes last start, has had a month between runs so has freshened-up for this, Noske stays on and over the 1100m looked like he wanted more. Won an April 2 trial over 1000m by a huge nine lengths at Pinjarra and the step up in distance should suit.
#2 Saxophonist ($12)
For value there’s a number of boxes ticked by Fred Kersley’s Saxon gelding Saxophonist who boasts a previous run over 1200m here from early February. Perth Stakes fiflth followed when beaten eight lengths, the drop back in distance to blame, before a Karrakatta Plate eighth when fading late but a better run calling here when needing more distance. Expect a late run after saving energy early when some of the others suspect at the distance go too hard too soon after the jump.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change