Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The season’s top three-year-old staying fillies face off in the Australian Oaks 2015 in Sydney this weekend, a detailed form guide and betting analysis on the Royal Randwick classic found below.
There are 13 hopefuls lining up in this year’s $1 million Group 1 Seven News Australian Oaks (2400m), the mile and a half showdown due to jump as Race 6 at 2:35pm (AEST) as one of four elite levels running on Day 2 of The Championships.
Australian Oaks odds at Ladbrokes.com.au, who give you the chance to win 20% more on all four Group 1s this Saturday thanks to their Best Tote or SP + 20% markets, are led by the firming favourite Winx ($4.60 into $4.20).
She has come up trumps with barrier one for jockey Joao Moreira and trainer Chris Waller, Waller after a second in in the race following the success of Royal Descent (2013) two years ago.
Winx was defeated by two lengths last time out however when fifth to Fenway in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) upset on March 28, and she faces a number of the same fillies here.
Her main dangers according to the Australian Oaks betting market are Vinery Stud Stakes winner Fenway ($6), third in the same lead-up race Thunder Lady ($6.50), Waller’s Vinery Stud fourth past the post Ballet Suite ($7.50) and visiting NZ Oaks winner Savaria ($8) from across the Tasman.
That’s what the bookies say, but what about the Australian Oaks form guide and betting history?
2015 Australian Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Oaks winner was Donna Logan’s Kiwi raider Rising Romance who came off a fourth in the Vinery Stud Stakes, jumped from barrier 4 (of 15) and was ridden by James McDonald
- The Kiwis look to go back-to-back with another win this year from #4 Savaria ($8) out in barrier 12 with last year’s winning jockey McDonald in the saddle again
- The only other previous Australian Oaks winning jockey along with McDonald (2-1-0-0) with a ride this year is Hugh Bowman (7-2-0-2) on #5 Candelara ($11)
- Previous Australian Oaks winning trainers after more success in 2015 are: Gai Waterhouse (24-3-3-2) with #8 Adrift; Bart Cummings (23-1-3-0) who prepares #13 Zarzali in partnership with his grandson James; and Chris Waller (4-1-0-0) with #2 Winx, #7 Wine Tales and #10 Ballet Suite
- Last year’s winning barrier (4) belongs on Saturday to the race roughie #11 Wildenstein ($151) and has produced a total of two Australian Oaks winners (since 1983)
- The most successful Australian Oaks barriers in that time with five winners each are one and five that belong this weekend to stablemates #2 Winx and #7 Wine Tales respectively
- Just two Australian Oaks favourites have won in the past decade with #2 Winx($4.20) out to be the first this year since Streama (2012)
- The Vinery Stud Stakes has produced five of the past 10 Australian Oaks winners including Rising Romance (2014) last year
- The fillies coming via the Vinery Stud Stakes this year are: the winner Fenway (1st) out to be the first to complete the double since Heavenly Glow (2008), Thunder Lady (3rd), Ballet Suite (4th), Winx (5th), Sweet And Speedy (8th), Adrift (9th) and Wildenstein (12th)
- Three fillies share the equal highest Win Rate of 50% with #4 Savaria, #10 Ballet Suite and #12 Gust Of Wind
- The best Place Rate then belongs to #4 Savaria (83%) followed by #9 Rustic Melody (78%) and #6 Sweet And Speedy (71%)
- Fillies with a previous win at the track (Randwick) are: #10 Ballet Suite (2-2-0-0), #2 Winx (4-1-2-0), #5 Candelara (4-1-0-1) and #8 Adrift (1-1-0-0)
- #9 Rustic Melody ($18) meanwhile hasn’t won at Randwick but has run second in both her previous starts at the track
- The only fillies with a previous run over the distance (2400m) are: #4 Savaria (1-1-0-0) and #13 Zarzali (1-1-0-0)
- It is likely to be a Soft track on Saturday and the fillies with the best Soft – Heavy track record in the Oaks are: #2 Winx (Heavy 1-1-0-0), #4 Savaria (Soft 1-1-0-0), #5 Candelara (Soft 3-2-0-0), #6 Sweet And Speedy (Soft 1-1-0-0; Heavy 2-0-1-1) and #13 Zarzali (Heavy 1-1-0-0)
Races.com.au are set to publish our exclusive Australian Oaks 2015 betting tips shortly so stay tuned.
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2015 Australian Oaks Form Guide
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