Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The autumn’s best staying three-year-olds come face-to-face this weekend at Randwick in the 2015 Australian Derby, betting tips for which are detailed below.
Punters get the chance to back four Group 1 winners in Sydney on Saturday, Best Tote or SP + 20% being offered on all four elite levels through Ladbrokes.com.au, including the $2 million Group 1 BMW Australian Derby (2400m).
A final field of 10 three-year-olds faces off in Randwick Race 7 at 3:50pm (AEDT) on Doncaster Mile Day, which is the first of two Saturday meetings making up the coveted The Championships.
Leading the current Australian Derby odds at $3.40, in from $3.50, is the Chris Waller-trained Victoria Derby winner Preferment.
He’s drawn out in barrier 10, a gate that hasn’t produced an Australian Derby winner since Dr. Grace (1990), but is still getting the love of the punters after a close last start second in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m).
The Rosehill Guineas, which eight of the past 10 ATC Derby winners came via, also produces the two Kiwi hopes on Saturday in Volkstok’n’barrell ($4.60) after the double and the fifth placed Mongolian Khan ($8.50) whose trainer Murray Baker shoots for a hat-trick in the classic.
The biggest danger to Preferment completing the interstate Victoria Derby – Australian Derby double however is the John O’Shea-trained market mover Hauraki backed in from $3.80 to $3.50 after his win in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill on March 28.
So do the bookies have it right this weekend or will there be an upset Australian Derby result from the likes of the Bart & James Cummings-trained improver Ruling Dynasty ($12) or Waller’s son of High Chaparral Quick Strike ($13)?
#3 Mongolian Khan ($8.50)
There are two Kiwis in the mix looking to join Nom Du Jeu (2008) and It’s A Dundeel (2013) as winners of this race from across the Tasman, and we’re leading in favour of the one prepared by the same trainer as those two former winners – Baker. At $8.50 Mongolian Khan is at an easy price and it’s a damn juicy one too based on the form back home of this Holy Roman Emperor colt. He won the Group 1 New Zealand Derby (2400m) two back, making him the only one in the field with a previous win over the distance. He ran fifth in the Rosehill Guineas in his debut down under last time out, the right race to come into the Derby via, and will be improving off that when stepped back in to the mile and a half. He jumps from barrier one which also produced last year’s winner Criterion so is in the right gate and the right distance for an upset.
#2 Volkstok’n’barrell ($4.60)
Think the New Zealand raiders will take out the trifecta with plenty to like about this Donna Logan-trained Tavistock gelding’s narrow win in the Rosehill Guineas. In the past two years by It’s A Dundeel and Criterion have completed the Guineas – Derby double, and don’t think there will be much in the finish on Saturday stopping it from happening again.
#1 Preferment ($3.40)
Waller’s Victoria Derby winner did it over one hundred metres further last year, so while the record officially shows no wins over this distance, he actually has won over 2500m. He’s the favourite, for now, and favourites have won the past two years so if he stays at the top of the odds that bodes well for the son of Zabeel historically. He’s bred to stay and was a nose away in the Rosehill Guineas so if he improves and handles the outside gate will be hard to hold out here.
Whether you fancy taking us up or taking us on with our Australian Derby 2015 tips, make sure you give yourself the chance of winning 20% more by betting with Ladbrokes.com.au in their Best Tote or SP + 20% markets!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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