If Saturday’s Doncaster Mile field stays as is and the first two emergencies fail to gain a start then their ‘Plan B’ race, the Carbine Club Stakes 2015, at Royal Randwick becomes a must tune-in for showdown.
There are 10 races on the Randwick program for Day 1 of The Championships this Easter Saturday, nine of which including the $200,000 Group 3 The Daily Telegraph Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) hold Group status.
Currently in the day’s major, the $3 million Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m), the field is at its capacity 20 starters plus four emergencies.
The first two of those spare runners sweating on a scratching to make the starting line-up in Randwick Race 9 are top three-year-olds Sweynesse for John O’Shea and the Chris Waller-trained Kermadec.
Despite being far from guaranteed a run in the mile classic the pair are being kept safe in Doncaster Mile betting at [ladrokes] paying $12 and $6.50 respectively in markets led by fellow three-year-old Randwick Guineas winner Hallowed Crown ($5.50).
Both Godolphin’s Lonhro colt Sweynesse, runner-up to Hallowed Crown in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) before a last start fourth behind the Australian Derby hopes in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 21, and Kermadec are also dominating Randwick Race 2 odds this weekend.
It is Waller’s very promising Teofilo colt Kermadec who is the shortie in the current Carbine Club Stakes odds paying $2.25, out from $2, to win from barrier three with Brazilian hoop Joao Moreira in the saddle.
His form reads fourth, third, fourth third this autumn and includes two Group 1 runs.
The first of those was at Flemington behind Wandjina when fourth in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) before his brave third when just over two lengths behind Japan’s Real Impact in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) on March 21.
Sam Clipperton’s mount in the Carbine, Sweynesse has barrier five in the nine-horse field of three-year-olds and sits as the firming $3.20 second pick in from $3.30.
As it stands there are no other single figure runners in the markets, but if the Doncaster emergencies get called up there will be some dramatic changes to betting.
Third pick at $10 currently is the rails-drawn Supara for Gai Waterhouse, Tommy Berry to ride the sole filly in the field.
She ran second two back behind Group 1 winner First Seal in the Group 2 Surround Stakes (1400m) at Warwick Farm before a third to Australian Oaks hope Winx in the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) on March 14.
The daughter of Domesday takes on the boys this weekend but having had plenty of luck with the barriers again, this being her sixth straight start from one of the two inside barriers, she is right in the mix again.
The others following on $13 in a logjam are then Commands colt Washington Heights, Peter Moody’s last start Warwick Farm winner Hi World and the Bryce Heys-trained Sworn To Silence who has been set for this race for a long time.
Assuming the field stays as is, below are our picks to win that you can lock in online now at the best price through Ladbrokes.com.au.
#2 Kermadec ($2.50)
We’re sorry to be so boring but the bookies have it right. Kermadec is second pick in a star-studded Doncaster Mile field so if he can’t run in that, against eight fellow three-year-olds in a Group 3 he’s going to be very hard to beat. Gets a gun run from barrier three with Joao Moreira to work his magic and the form is outstanding. Top four in his past four this autumn including the George Ryder Stakes third last time out against the Doncaster hopes including the Japanese-trained winner. If he runs he wins it’s as simple as that.
#1 Sweynesse ($3.20)
Second pick runs second. He’s first in line to jump into the Doncaster mix however so the most likely to come out of this field if anything goes amiss to any of the Group 1 hopes. Drawn wider than his main danger but his lead-up form is just as impressive. Super-consistent record of four wins from nine starts and has form around the season’s best of this age. Was runner-up to the Doncaster favourite in both the Hobartville and the Randwick Guineas before his Rosehill Guineas fourth he’ll be improving on when dropped back to a mile.
#9 Supara ($10)
She’s the smart filly with ace form taking on the boys and she has genuine claims to beat them too. Waterhouse’s record on this day is imposing and from barrier one with Tommy Berry on here Supara can surprise. She is four runs in now and caught the eye in both the Surround Stakes (2nd) and Phar Lap (3rd) so is working her way up to a mile which she should handle here.
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