A quartet of Group 1 races are batting for the punters’ attention in Sydney on Easter Saturday and while the Doncaster Mile is the meeting’s marquee event, the TJ Smith Stakes 2015 threatens to steal the show.
The superstar sprinters are down to face off in Randwick Race 8 at 4:30pm (AEDT), the $2.5 million Group 1 Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) drawing a final field of 11 this autumn.
Day 1 of The Championships is a beauty and the class in the TJ Smith Stakes reflects that including the current $2.90 favourite Chautauqua who is full of potential chasing his maiden Group 1 win.
The Team Hawkes-trained four-year-old won a Group 2 in Melbourne first-up before a Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) second, making him a dual Flemington Group 1 runner-up thanks also to his Darley Classic finish back in November.
He’s just been off them and won’t be far behind this weekend, especially with Chris Waller’s Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau out of the mix.
So who does he have to beat this weekend?
The TJ Smith Stakes betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au say his main threats are Darley Classic winner Terravista ($3.10) for Joe Pride, last year’s winning Lankan Rupee ($5) and Gai Waterhouse’s class mare Sweet Idea ($6.50) who is the early market mover.
Does the TJ Smith Stakes form guide and betting history tell the same story?
2015 TJ Smith Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the Mick Price-trained Lankan Rupee who came off a Newmarket Handicap win, jumped from barrier one and had Craig Newitt in the saddle
- This year #1 Lankan Rupee ($5) returns after back-to-back TJ Smith Stakes wins, success making him the first to do it in successive years
- Black Caviar won dual editions of the race but on non-successive years (2011 and 2013)
- Last year’s winning hoop Craig Newitt stays on after back-to-back wins in the classic also
- Other previous TJ Smith Stakes winning jockeys with a ride this year are: Hugh Bowman (10-1-1-2) aboard #2 Terravista and Craig Williams (4-1-0-1) on #8 Rain Affair
- Along with Price (2-1-0-0) and his defending champ the other former TJ Smith Stakes winning trainers with a runner this year are: Gai Waterhouse (10-3-1-2) with #10 Sweet Idea, Joe Pride (10-1-1-0) with #2 Terravista, #4 Tiger Tees and #6 Rain Affair, and John Hawkes (14-1-2-1) who saddles-up #3 Chautauqua with sons Wayne & Michael
- Last year’s winning barrier (1) this year belongs to outsider #5 Famous Seamus ($41) and also produced Black Caviar for her second win in 2013
- The most successful TJ Smith Stakes barrier in history meanwhile is five with five winners – #10 Sweet Idea ($6.50) has the coveted gate this year
- This year horses coming out of the Newmarket Handicap are Chautauqua (2nd), Terravista (3rd), Lord Of The Sky (4th) and Lankan Rupee (6th)
- Favourites have a gun TJ Smith Stakes record with four saluting in the past 10 years; this year’s favourite out to continue the trend and become the third straight to win is #3 Chautauqua ($2.90)
- #2 Terravista (64%) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field followed by #1 Lankan Rupee (50%)
- The highest Place Rate belongs to #10 Sweet Idea (84%) followed closely by #3 Chautauqua (83%), #2 Terravista (79%) and #1 Lankan Rupee (77%)
- Horses with the best record at Randwick are: #2 Terravista (4-4-0-0), #10 Sweet Idea (4-3-0-0), #5 Famous Seamus (10-3-0-3), #8 Rain Affair (11-2-3-1), #4 Tiger Tees (9-2-1-1) and #1 Lankan Rupee (1-1-0-0)
- Over the distance (1200m) those to beat are: #5 Famous Seamus (18-5-1-4), #1 Lankan Rupee (10-4-1-2), #2 Terravista (6-4-0-1), #4 Tiger Tees (11-4-0-1), #8 Rain Affair (11-4-2-0), #10 Sweet Idea (8-3-3-1), #6 Fontelina (10-3-1-0) and #3 Chautauqua (8-2-5-0)
- Previous winners at the track & distance are then: #2 Terravista (3-3-0-0), #10 Sweet Idea (3-2-0-0), #8 Rain Affair (6-2-1-0), #1 Lankan Rupee (1-1-0-0), #4 Tiger Tees (3-1-0-0) and #5 Famous Seamus (4-1-0-1)
Stay tuned for the Races.com.au team’s insider TJ Smith Stakes 2015 betting tips up shortly.
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