This Saturday in Sydney the Rosehill racing action is highlighted by the lucrative 2015 The BMW Stakes, a detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for the weight-for-age classic found right here.
Eleven gallopers remain in the mix for this autumn’s $1.5 million Group 1 The BMW (2400m) after the Donna Logan-trained Kiwi mare Rising Romance was scratched due to a hoof issue, heat found in her heel.
The early scratching has seen The BMW odds on a host of the runners still in contention firm at Ladbrokes.com.au including the firm favourite To The World.
The Japanese-trained raider debuts down under in the mile and a half showdown ahead of an even richer autumn assignment, the $4 million Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on Day 2 of The Championships on April 11.
He is favourite for both races, the progressive King Kamehameha stallion racing for the first time since his second to Gentildonna as a $31 outsider in the Group 1 Arima Kinen (2500m) on December 28.
His first-up record is solid with three seconds and a win from four runs, and he has firmed in from $2.70 to $2.25 to take out The BMW tomorrow.
The next best in betting at $3.40 is another market mover Hartnell who was out to as long as $3.80 earlier before being tightened back in.
John O’Shea’s British import has a gun barrier three draw with top jockey James McDonald staying on after the duo took out the Group 3 Sky High Stakes (2000m) at the track on March 14, Hartnell’s second run in Australia after a first-up second in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) behind fellow Godolphin import Contributer.
The other top fancies are then Melbourne Cup winning German import Protectionist ($8.50) and classy mare Lucia Valentina ($9).
That’s the story from the bookies but what about The BMW history, form guide and betting trends?
2015 The BMW Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s The BMW winner was the Roger James-trained Kiwi mare Silent Achiever who came off a win in the Ranvet Stakes, jumped from barrier four (of nine) and was ridden by Nash Rawiller
- #9 Silent Achiever ($13) is back to defend her title looking to be the first back-to-back The BMW winner since Tie The Knot (1999-2000)
- This year she comes off a fourth in the Ranvet Stakes and is drawn in barrier eight with Kerrin McEvoy riding
- The other Ranvet Stakes graduates backing up in The BMW this year are Lucia Valentina (3rd) and $101 roughie for tomorrow Fast Dragon (7th), and 12 of the past 20 winners came via the Ranvet Stakes
- Last year’s winning barrier (4) on Saturday belongs to #4 Opinion ($31) and has produced six The BMW winners (since 1983) making it the race’s most successful gate
- The next best The BMW barriers with four winners each are then five, seven and 10 which belong this year to the three long-shots in the race: #6 Fast Dragon ($101), #3 Beaten Up ($51) and #12 Hampton Court ($67) respectively
- In the past 10 years mares have won The BMW three times including Silent Achiever (2014) last autumn; the two mares in the race this year are: #9 Silent Achiever and #10 Lucia Valentina
- Previous The BMW winning trainers with a runner this year are Roger James (3-1-1-1) with the defending champ #9 Silent Achiever and Gai Waterhouse (14-2-2-1) with #12 Hampton Court
- Since 1983 10 three-year-olds have won The BMW, most recently Fiveandahalfstar (2013), and #12 Hampton Court is the only 3YO in the 2015 edition
- Jockeys boasting a previous The BMW win with a ride this weekend are: Glen Boss (14-2-0-2) on #2 Who Shot Thebarman, Damien Oliver (13-2-3-3) on #6 Fast Dragon and Craig Williams (8-1-0-0) on #1 Protectionist
- Since 2005 four favourites have won The BMW including Fiveandahalfstar (2013); this year’s favourite is Japanese raider #7 To The World ($2.25)
- #2 Who Shot Thebarman (44%) boasts the highest Win Rate followed closely by #1 Protecionist (42%), #7 To The World (40%) and #8 Hartnell (40%)
- The best Place Rate belongs to #7 To The World (80%) followed by #1 Protectionist (75%), #8 Hartnell (73%) and #2 Who Shot Thebarman (61%)
- Over the distance (2400m) the horses with the best form are #4 Opinion (6-2-1-1), #9 Silent Achiever (5-2-1-0), #1 Protectionist (2-1-0-0), #2 Who Shot Thebarman (2-1-0-0), #3 Beaten Up (3-1-0-0) and #10 Lucia Valentina (2-0-0-2)
The only previous winners at the track are: #9 Silent Achiever (6-2-1-1), #10 Lucia Valentina (3-1-0-1), #4 Opinion (7-1-2-0) and #8 Hartnell (1-1-0-0)
Bookmark us here at Races.com.au for our insider The BMW 2015 betting tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime see below for the full form guide on the race courtesy of our preferred online bookmaker Ladbrokes.com.au who are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on The BMW this weekend!