2015 Australian Guineas Form Guide & Preview

March 6, 2015

2015 Australian Guineas Form Guide & Preview

In a strange twist of fate, two of the feature autumn guineas races have been scheduled to run on the same day in competing states, which means trainers and owners alike had to decide whether to run in Sydney or Melbourne.

Kermadec (outside) is the favourite to win the Group 1 Australian Guineas, however favourites haven't fared too well in the past.

Kermadec (outside) is the favourite to win the Group 1 Australian Guineas, however favourites haven’t fared too well in the past. Photo by Sarah Ebbett.

The Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) may be considered the classier affair but the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) is by far the more popular, attracting a capacity field of 16 three-year-olds.

Odds for the race remain fairly open at Ladbrokes.com.au with just four single figure hopefuls, led by Kermadec at $3.40.

The Chris Waller-trained colt has already won over the track and distance of the Australian Guineas, winning the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Flemington back in November. Following a three month spell, Kermadec resumed for fourth in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes (1200m) on February 7 before running a very close third in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) two weeks later.

The other single figure hopefuls include impressive last start winner of the Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m) Alpine Eagle ($6.50), Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m) runner-up Stratum Star ($8.50), and Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) winner Wandjina ($8.50).

That’s how the bookies see the 2015 Australian Guineas eventuating but do the race’s form guide, race history, and betting stats tell a different story?

2015 Australian Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Australian Guineas winner was the Danny O’Brien-trained Shamus Award who won by one length after jumping from barrier nine with Craig Williams to ride.
  • Craig Williams will vie for back-to-back wins with #13 Minnesinger ($15).
  • Last year’s winning barrier (9) will this year be occupied by roughie #17e Manapine ($101), who earned his place on the field after the scratching of Testashadow.
  • Since 1983 the most successful starting points for the race have been barriers 2 and 7, both bringing home six winners each.
  • #15 Fontein Ruby ($17) will enjoy the jump from barrier 2 while #10 Alpine Eagle ($6.50) will start from gate 7.
  • Mosheen is the only winner in the past 28 years to win from a double-figure barrier, which doesn’t suggest good things for the eight runners in gates 10-16 this year.
  • Males have historically dominated the race with only two fillies winning over the last 30 years – Mosheen (2012) and Shamrocker (2011) – however it’s worth noting they’ve both won in the past five years.
  • Representing the girls in this year’s edition are Fontein Ruby and #16 Sweet And Speedy ($26).
  • Favourites don’t fare particularly well in the Australian Guineas with only two justifying their odds in the past 10 years, however eight of them have managed to place so perhaps an each way bet is a safer option for punters backing #9 Kermadec ($3.40).
  • It’s also worth noting that since 1983 only 4 Guineas winners have won at double figures – average price of $19 – which means the bookies generally have the race down pat.
  • That means unless a number of runners see their odds shorten in the next 24 hours, the likely winners will be Kermadec ($3.40), Alpine Eagle ($6.50), Stratum Star ($8.50), and Wandjina ($8.50).
  • Those sitting on the verge that could sneak into single digit figures include #1 Rommel ($12) and #2 Petrology ($11).
  • There is no particularly strong form line for past Australian Guineas winner, though Fontein Ruby and Shamrocker both came via the Group 3 Vanity (1400m), which was won by Sweet And Speedy two weeks ago.
  • The most successful trainers since 1983 are David Hayes with 3 wins from 19 starts and Lee Freedman with 3 wins from 15 starts.
  • Hayes will saddle two horses with his training partner Tom Dabernig – Petrology and Firehouse Rock – while Freedman will saddle Minnesinger with his brother Anthony.
  • The horse with the best Win Rate is Alpine Eagle (80%) followed by Admiral and Lucky Liberty (75%).
  • Meanwhile Admiral, Alpine Eagle, and Sweet And Speedy all have perfect Place Rates (100%). Admiral’s is the most impressive, finishing in the first three in all 12 of his starts.
  • Horses with a good record at Flemington include: Stratum Star (5:1-1-1), Merion (3:2-0-0), and Fontein Ruby (4:2-0-0).
  • Those with good records running over a mile include: Admiral (2:2-0-0) and Kermadec (2:1-1-0).

You’re now ready to place a well-informed wager on the 2015 Australian Guineas so head on over to Ladbrokes.com.au. New customers will receive up to $250 in a bonus match on their first bets.

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