Racing fans in Melbourne are spoilt for choice this weekend with three Group One races alone running at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday.
One such race is the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m), which will see eight top-class sprint-mile runners contest the $400,000 race.
Just three runners are offering single figure odds in the betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au, led by Peter Moody’s Dissident.
The four-year-old is the $1.70 odds-on favourite to win the Futurity Stakes and earn his fifth Group One accolade. The race seems tailor-made for Dissident, considering he loves running over 1400m and at Caulfield. Dissident is in great form after winning the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes over the same conditions just two weeks ago.
Rounding out the single figure odds are Gai Waterhouse’s tough mare Driefontein ($6.50), who will enjoy the inside jump from barrier one, and Entirely Platinum ($7), who finished runner-up to Dissident in the CF Orr Stakes.
That’s how the bookmakers see the race going but what does the race’s history, form guide, and betting statistics have to say? Check out our detailed analysis below to get a comprehensive understanding of where to put your money.
2015 Futurity Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Futurity Stakes winner was the Peter Moody-trained Moment Of Change, who jumped from barrier six (of nine) with Luke Nolen as jockey.
- Peter Moody has won the race twice in the past six years and will aim for his third with #1 Dissident, who will start from the outside gate with Ben Melham to ride.
- The most successful trainers since 1983 are David Hayes with 4 wins from 19 starts and Lee Freedman with 4 wins from 16 starts.
- David Hayes will aim to win his fifth on Saturday with #6 Guest Of Honour ($21).
- Damien Oliver is the most successful jockey with 3 wins from 16 rides. This year the hoop will partner #8 Suavito ($13).
- The 1400m start at Caulfield is a short run to the first turn so inside barriers can be a distinct advantage. Barriers 1-6 combined have brought home more winners than 7-13 in the past 30 years, though individually barrier seven is the most successful with six winners.
- This year #2 Smokin’ Joey ($12) will jump from barrier 7 while #4 Entirely Platinum ($7) will jump from last year’s winning gate (6).
- Favourites have enjoyed a good record in the Futurity with five of the last 10 justifying their odds and winning, meanwhile just two favourites have failed to place. This is good news for Dissident ($1.70).
- The Group 1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m) is considered the major lead-up guide to the Futurity with nine of the past 12 winners coming via the February 14 race, four of which completed the double.
- This year there are just two horses coming via the Apollo Stakes: #1 Dissident (1st) and #4 Entirely Platinum (2nd).
- The Futurity Stakes is dominated by males with only four mares winning since 1983, the last of which was More Joyous (2011).
- #7 Driefontein ($6.50) and #8 Suavito ($13) will be doing it for the girls this year and are well-tipped to run well, the latter of which is the current market mover.
- All five past winners are last start winners, coming via the CF Orr, Breeders Classic, or Toorak Handicap.
- Last start winners in this year’s race include: Dissident (Group 1 CF Orr Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 14/02/15), Smokin’ Joey (Group 3 Carlyon Cup, 1600m, Caulfield, 14/02/15), and Suavito (Group 2 Momentum Energy Stakes, 2000m, Flemington, 8/11/14).
- The horse boasting the best Win Rate is Entirely Platinum (35%) followed by Suavito (33%) and Dissident (32%).
- Meanwhile the horse with the best Place Rate is Suavito (80%) followed by Entirely Platinum (71%) and Dissident (68%).
- Horses with the best record over the distance include: Dissident (5:3-2-0), Bull Point (5:0-2-2), Entirely Platinum (6:4-1-0), and Suavito (7:2-2-2).
- Those with the best track experience are: Dissident (8:3-1-1) and Suavito (5:2-1-2).
- Previous winners over both the track & distance are: Dissident (3:2-1-0), Smokin’ Joey (7:1-1-0), and Suavito (4:2-1-1).
- Four of the past seven winners have carried the top weight of 59kg, which this year will be carried by all six male runners.
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