This Saturday in Melbourne a host of top autumn features and lead-up races will take place including the three-year-old boys facing off in the 2015 CS Hayes Stakes – betting tips for which are detailed below.
Thirteen colts and geldings remain in the mix for this year’s $150,000 Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington after Chris Waller withdrew Kermadec for a run in Sydney’s Group 2 Hobartville Stakes over the same distance at Rosehill instead.
Leading the latest CS Hayes Stakes betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au are three hopefuls who the bookmakers are having a hard time separating.
Current $5 co-favourites are market mover Stratum Star who has bene well backed right in from $7 and Lucky Liberty in from $6.
The Darren Weir-trained Stratum Star is out in barrier 11 and is looking to break a frustrating success of three second place finishes.
He won back-to-back races in October at Listed level before seconds in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) behind Kermadec at Flemington on Derby Day, the Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m) to Petrology and most recent his first-up second to Profit Share over 1300m back at Sandown-Hillside.
Lucky Liberty meanwhile is the $9 second favourite to win the $1 million Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) back at Flemington on March 7, those futures markets led by Shooting To Win ($8) who resumes in the Hobartville.
Yet to taste defeat, Statue Of Liberty gelding Lucky Liberty has won all three of his career starts to date but will need to be improving from a wide barrier 12 draw on the weekend in his first black type assignment.
Just behind the top two in CS Hayes Stakes betting is then the ultra-consistent Wez Hunter-trained Reset gelding Disposition ($5.50) racing first-up here in his first run outside of Perth since changing stables at the start of the year.
So will the Perth expat get the better of the top two in betting?
Or is there a total CS Hayes Stakes blowout on the cards from a longer priced hopeful in the market such as Peter Moody’s last start Group 2 Autumn Stakes winner San Nicasio ($10) or even the Gary Portelli-trained Testashadow ($21) coming off a Magic Millions 3YO Guineas second at the Gold Coast?
#1 Disposition ($5.50)
The form of Perth horses coming over is never well regarded during the big Melbourne and Sydney carnivals but Disposition is with Hunter for good now and could be one of those rarities – a good horse out of WA. He gets a good barrier four draw with Craig Williams to ride him in his Melbourne debut, the galloper having won four of his six starts and run second in the other two back home before this. Last two runs in the summer were both seconds firstly to Rommell in the Group 2 WA Guineas (1600m) and then to Chris Waller’s Sydney raider Moriarty in the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic (1800m). Has won his only other start over the distance and goes well fresh so could surprise.
#5 San Nicasio ($10)
One of the forgotten horses in this star-studded field full of genuine hopes. Nice double figure price being offered for Moody’s Hard Spun gelding who backed up from an Australia Day fourth in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes (1300m) last month to win the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield last weekend. Has won three from five but none yet at Flemington. First-up is a flyer but should be improving again here as well so could strike again.
#2 Stratum Star ($5)
Plenty to like about the market mover and co-favourite who is pretty deserving of the price. Needs some luck from barrier 12 but is an underrated galloper who could sneak into a good spot. So with the right run definitely a chance – but get in quick if you like him as it seems the money is coming and the tip is not such a surprise now.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change