Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday in Melbourne the second Group 1 clash of the year takes place at the famous Flemington Racecourse, tips for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 2015 showdown found below.
A diminutive field of six classy sprinters face off in this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), which is due to jump as race seven at 4:35pm (AEDT) tomorrow afternoon.
Steady favourite in the Black Caviar Lightning odds at Ladbrokes.com.au is the untapped Team Hawkes-trained Deep Field at $2.30 to retain his undefeated status come Sunday morning’s papers.
The four-year-old has had five starts for five impressive wins but the Black Caviar is his first time in a Group 1 race, and his first run since his Group 2 victory at the track over 1200m back on Victoria Derby Day.
The biggest danger to the promising son of Northern Meteor is then the Mick Price-trained Lankan Rupee chasing his fourth Group 1 win here.
The proven champion is on the drift despite his massive record having eased out from $2.35 to $2.50, Craig Newitt back aboard with the pair to jump from the outside barrier six.
The only other real danger going by the Black Caviar Lightning betting markets is then Chris Waller’s market mover, three-year-old Brazen Beau in from $5.50 to $5.
His latest start was during the Melbourne Cup Carnival when winning the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, and nine of the past 10 Lightning Stakes winners were first-up off a spell.
Three-year-olds enjoyed an enormous record in the race a couple of decades back but the last winner of that age was in 2005.
Waller isn’t convinced Brazen Beau can beat Deep Field and Lankan Rupee first-up here but knows he has a top young horse on his hands and isn’t ruling him out for the upset.
So should you follow the bookies and place your Lightning Stakes bets in the order of the odds?
Or is there value to be found adding one of the double figure hopes into your Lightning Stakes trifecta such as the rails-drawn The Quarterback ($26) who is a dual winner over the track and distance?
#1 Lankan Rupee ($2.50)
Don’t think there will be much in the finish with Deep Field the one to catch but there is too much proven experience at the highest level from the world’s equal highest rated sprinter to ignore Price’s five-year-old for the win here. Has won four Group 1s including the Oakleigh Plate – Newmarket Handicap double in Melbourne last autumn and will appreciate having Newitt back aboard for this. First-up runners hold the advantage in the Lightning Stakes and his first-up record is outstanding (5-3-1-0). One of only two in the field to have won over the track and distance (2-1-1-0), and really is a short distance specialist with three wins and two seconds over the 1000m. 50% win rate, 80% place rate. Think experience will just win the battle here.
#5 Deep Field ($2.30)
He is firm favourite but think that Lankan Rupee might just have the edge over him first-up. Maybe not later in the autumn when they meet again, but the value is on the older horse in the Lightning for us. Was ultra-impressive winning his opening five starts and is yet to taste defeat, but hasn’t been up to Group 1 company yet. Also while Lankan has the stellar 1000m record, Deep Field is yet to race over it so 1200m might be more his go. On the plus he’s drawn in barrier five, one inside of Lankan Rupee, which has produced five Lightning Stakes winners since 1983. He is also the right age with four-year-olds dominating the race in recent years with four wins since 1009 including Snitzerland (2014) last autumn.
#4 The Quarterback ($26)
While #6 Brazen Beau certainly has his claims, we’re leaning towards this double figure outsider to add value to the winning Lightning Stakes trifecta this weekend. Gets the run of the race from barrier one if he can stay on pace with the likely leader (but subsequent last over the line) Fab Fevola. Again, is the right age as a four-year-old and has a good Flemington record (7-2-0-3). He is also the only other horse aside from Lankan Rupee to have won over the track and distance, in fact boasting a better record with two wins and a third from three starts.
Whether you’re backing or sacking our Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 2015 betting tips, make sure you place your bets online with Ladbrokes.com.au this weekend who are offering Best Tote or SP + a 20% bonus on your winnings for the Group 1!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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