Betting markets for the last on CF Orr Stakes Day at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday are led by the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Girl Guide and in bad news for punters looking for value she looks hard to beat first-up.
Girl Guide is one of 12 mares making up the field for this year’s $150,000 Group 3 Routelys Bakery Bellmaine Stakes (1200m), due to jump as Melbourne Race 9 at 6:25pm (AEDT) on Saturday afternoon.
Drawn well in barrier three for jockey Craig Williams, the Flemington-based Group 1 performer boasts an ideal first-up record of two wins from two starts.
Unsurprisingly then the five-year-old daughter of Churchill Downs pays $3.30 as the top fancy in the Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au.
Her latest run was back on November 1, Victoria Derby Day, at Flemington where she stayed in touch with a class field to run under two lengths away sixth to Bonaria in the Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m).
Saturday’s race is over a sprint distance of 1200m but that holds no fears for the deserving favourite who has won three of her five runs over the distance as well as running a second and a third as well.
So who can beat Girl Guide?
The bookies are saying her main dangers are Robert Smerdon’s Summoned Stakes winner Politeness ($6), consistent four-year-old Tycoon Tara ($6.50) who has the fitness edge here and the in-form Scarlet Billows ($7.50) – but do they have it right?
#5 Girl Guide ($3.30)
She’s the deserving favourite and will be hard to beat first-up from the good gate. Distance (5-3-1-1), track (3-1-2-0) and running first-up (2-2-0-0) all suit. After her first win since the Group 3 How Now Stakes (1200m) at this track and distance from September and think she’ll get it. A Caulfield specialist in barrier three? She’ll get all the luck and the run of the race so hard to see an upset.
#1 Bonaria ($11)
Pat Hyland’s six-year-old Myer Classic winner resumes here but has never won first-up. She’s had seven goes for three third place finishes, but we still rate her a top three chance. Distance isn’t ideal but again she’s placed a few times over the 1200m so not ruling her out totally. Three time winner at the track, handles all conditions, is a Group 1 winner over some of these and has claims at a good price.
#3 Politeness ($6)
Plenty to like about Smerdon’s Street Sense four-year-old ridden by Nicholas Hall from barrier six. Two time winner from three runs over the distance but is yet to win at Caulfield. First-up having won the Summoned Stakes at Sandown in November before a break. Trialled well behind Fontein Ruby at Cranbourne late last month, with Hall aboard, and was only two lengths off Bonaria in the Myer Classic during the Cup Carnival.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change