The Anthony Freedman trained Santa Ana Lane has...
Betting markets for the last on CF Orr Stakes Day at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday are led by the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Girl Guide and in bad news for punters looking for value she looks hard to beat first-up.
Girl Guide is one of 12 mares making up the field for this year’s $150,000 Group 3 Routelys Bakery Bellmaine Stakes (1200m), due to jump as Melbourne Race 9 at 6:25pm (AEDT) on Saturday afternoon.
Drawn well in barrier three for jockey Craig Williams, the Flemington-based Group 1 performer boasts an ideal first-up record of two wins from two starts.
Unsurprisingly then the five-year-old daughter of Churchill Downs pays $3.30 as the top fancy in the Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au.
Her latest run was back on November 1, Victoria Derby Day, at Flemington where she stayed in touch with a class field to run under two lengths away sixth to Bonaria in the Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m).
Saturday’s race is over a sprint distance of 1200m but that holds no fears for the deserving favourite who has won three of her five runs over the distance as well as running a second and a third as well.
So who can beat Girl Guide?
The bookies are saying her main dangers are Robert Smerdon’s Summoned Stakes winner Politeness ($6), consistent four-year-old Tycoon Tara ($6.50) who has the fitness edge here and the in-form Scarlet Billows ($7.50) – but do they have it right?
#5 Girl Guide ($3.30)
She’s the deserving favourite and will be hard to beat first-up from the good gate. Distance (5-3-1-1), track (3-1-2-0) and running first-up (2-2-0-0) all suit. After her first win since the Group 3 How Now Stakes (1200m) at this track and distance from September and think she’ll get it. A Caulfield specialist in barrier three? She’ll get all the luck and the run of the race so hard to see an upset.
#1 Bonaria ($11)
Pat Hyland’s six-year-old Myer Classic winner resumes here but has never won first-up. She’s had seven goes for three third place finishes, but we still rate her a top three chance. Distance isn’t ideal but again she’s placed a few times over the 1200m so not ruling her out totally. Three time winner at the track, handles all conditions, is a Group 1 winner over some of these and has claims at a good price.
#3 Politeness ($6)
Plenty to like about Smerdon’s Street Sense four-year-old ridden by Nicholas Hall from barrier six. Two time winner from three runs over the distance but is yet to win at Caulfield. First-up having won the Summoned Stakes at Sandown in November before a break. Trialled well behind Fontein Ruby at Cranbourne late last month, with Hall aboard, and was only two lengths off Bonaria in the Myer Classic during the Cup Carnival.
Jump on the Caulfield betting bandwagon for the season’s opening Group 1 meeting now at Ladbrokes.com.au and enjoy having your first deposit matched as a new customer dollar for dollar up to $250 when you quote the code BETBONUS!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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