Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Group One racing returns to Melbourne this Saturday in the form of the CF Orr Stakes (1400m).
Running at 3:15pm (AEDT), the CF Orr is the feature race at Caulfield Racecourse. It has attracted a classy field of 15 runners, including Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) winner Happy Trails.
Just three hopefuls are on single figure odds in the betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au, led by firm favourite Dissident at $3.20. The Peter Moody-trained horse has seen plenty of support from punters with his price shortening from $3.80 since betting opened yesterday.
Dissident is a three-time Group One winner and found success over the track and distance of the CF Orr Stakes in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) last spring. His first-up run in the Group 2 Australia Stakes didn’t go as planned, he finished third to rival Mourinho, but a return to Caulfield should also see him return to the winner’s circle.
The betting certainly favours fit runners over those resuming from spells but does the CF Orr Stakes’ form guide, race history, and betting statistics back them up as the three to beat?
Before you place your bets at Ladbrokes.com.au read our comprehensive race preview and form guide below to get a better understanding of who to put your money on.
2015 CF Orr Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- The most successful trainer is Peter Moody with 4 wins from 11 starters, all in the past five years. This year he will saddle #2 Dissident.
- Moody won last year’s race with Moment Of Change. The gelding jumped from barrier five with Luke Nolen and was race favourite.
- #9 Aeronautical ($41) has scored the jump from the most recent winning barrier (5) with Brad Rawiller to ride.
- Inside barriers can be a distinct advantage in the 1400m start at Caulfield because of the short run to the first turn. The most successful CF Orr Stakes barriers since 1983 are 1, 4, and 5 with six winners each.
- #12 Spillway ($12) will jump from the inside gate while #10 Star Rolling ($21) will jump from barrier 4.
- Favourites fare well in the CF Orr Stakes, especially in recent times. All past five winners of the race were favourites and only three of the past 10 have failed to place, which is good news for supporters of Dissident ($3.20).
- Specialist sprinters are preferred to resuming horses in the CF Orr Stakes betting but resuming stayers shouldn’t be discounted – Maldivian (2009), El Segundo (2007), and Elvstroem (2005) all won first-up from spring campaigns.
- Six of the last ten winners have been first-up runners resuming from spells while the other four all came via the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m).
- Those coming via the Australia Stakes this year are: #2 Dissident (3rd) and #3 Mourinho (1st).
- Mares have been very competitive lately, winning four of the last ten races, which means punters should consider #13 Real Love ($15).
- There are more unplaced last start runners than placed in this year’s field, which is a good sign for #1 Happy Trials, Dissident, Mourinho, #7 Mouro, Real Love, #14 Petrology, and #15 Java.
- The Lee & Anthony Freedman-trained Java has the best Win Rate (67%)
- Adam Durrant’s Real Love has the best Place Rate (85%), followed by Mouro (70%), Entirely Platinum (69%), and Dissident (67%).
- Horses with good track records at Caulfield include: Dissident (7:2-1-1), Bagman (4:1-1-2), and Star Rolling (5:1-1-1).
- Horses with good records over the distance include: Dissident (4:2-2-0), Bagman (12:3-2-3), Mouro (5:2-2-0), Entirely Platinum (5:4-0-0), and Real Love (4:1-2-0).
- Dissident and Star Rolling ($21) are the only winners over the track & distance.
With all this information in hand, you’re now ready to make an informed bet on the 2015 CF Orr Stakes at Ladbrokes.com.au.
Don’t worry if you’re 1st fixed odds win bet comes 2nd or 3rd because you’ll get your stake back as a bonus bet!
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